Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh
Although there are no signs of launching any political settlement for the crises in the region, the UN resolution about Syria has, at least, set the rules for the first phase of the political settlement. However, it seems that most of the regional crisis are somehow interconnected and the Syrian crisis which is still the crucial part of this chain. Many believe that the current ongoing crisis has its roots back in the 80s, directly after the Saudi proposal for the peace Arab initiative, which was rejected then by the Syrian President Hafez Al Assad.
The current crisis seems to reach a new phase where most of the protagonists are obliged to accept new terms for the regional political settlement, particularly; when the long Syrian crisis has deepened the crisis of many countries. And so, it seems that the ongoing regional crises are paving the way for a regional settlement. Jordan, for example, has become intensely connected to the Syrian crisis and its bearings. Jordan, nowadays, is facing huge pressure due to some major factors: 1) its hard economic situation, 2) the less enthusiastic engagement from the international community toward the internal Jordanian crisis, 3) and the return of the idea of having Jordan as a place where all refugees are contained.
While the level of Jordanian internal challenges is extremely high, Jordan should thoroughly observe what is happening in places that have a direct impact on the its politics, primarily the aftermath of the Palestinian issue and the possibility of an upcoming sparking chaos in the West Bank. Besides that, the Israeli wish – in a certain point- to export its crisis to Jordan will not be subjected to any obligation related to the Israeli role in any peace process. A new crisis would logically lead to new imposed solution through a possible new UN resolution.
Jordan needs to deal with the regional crises through a national security strategy that is capable of facing the current and future pressures and their bearings. Therefore, Jordan requires a new realistic approach that is based on giving a genuine national spirit to the society, and restructuring effectively the bureaucratic system. Preparations to face the coming challenges necessitate having new blood in the system, and putting an end to the presence of those who do not believe in the concept of the state or do not belong to its traditions. Jordan needs to adopt new tactics so it can deal with the fast dynamics changes efficiently.
Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh