Security Risks and Development Challenges: The Implications of French Withdrawal on the Rise of Terrorism in West Africa (Since 2014-2024)

Prepared by the researche : PhD Researcher / Mohamed Hassan Khadery Ahmed – Faculty of African Postgraduate Studies Cairo University/ Egypt Politics & Economics Department (Econmiecs)

Democratic Arabic Center

Journal of extremism and armed groups : Nineteenth Issue – May 2025

A Periodical International Journal published by the “Democratic Arab Center” Germany – Berlin

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Abstract

This study examines the interplay between the withdrawal of French troops and the escalation of terrorist activities in West Africa, analyzing its implications for regional security and sustainable development. Over the past two decades, the gradual French military disengagement has precipitated a security vacuum, enabling the proliferation of transnational terrorist networks such as ISIS in the Sahara and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), as well as groups like the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) and the Ansar Dine group (particularly in  Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso). Concurrently, deteriorating security has exacerbated socio-economic vulnerabilities, undermining infrastructure, foreign investment, and human development index.

The study aims to evaluate the security-development nexus post-French withdrawal. The importance of the study lays in examining the vital link between security risks and development in West Africa, highlighting the impact of the 2023–2024 French military withdrawal on regional stability in west Africa. The study used the descriptive method we adopt the descriptive approach in collecting, analyzing data and information, to ultimately arrive at specific and clear results that answer the questions posed in the research problem.

The study found that the escalation of terrorism has had a direct impact on development. The resulting security vacuum has intensified terrorist attacks, obstructed the implementation of vital development projects, and undermined reconstruction efforts.

The study has been divide into four main chapters; the first chapter is about the Implications of the French withdrawal on the security landscape, the second is The impact of security risks on development paths, the third chapter concerns the response of domestic and international stakeholders. Fourth chapter is focused on a SWOT analysis for assessing security risks  and Development challenges in West Africa after the French withdrawal  . Overall, the study concluded that there is significant impact of security on development. Development  cannot be achieved in light of the escalation of terrorism and security risks, especially following the French withdrawal and its impact on the security landscape in west Africa Region.

• Introduction

Over the past two decades, the West African region has witnessed, most notably, the escalation of terrorist activity following the gradual withdrawal of French troops. This withdrawal, which left a security vacuum, led to a redistribution of the balance of power at the local and regional levels. With the escalation of security risks, complex challenges have emerged for economic and social development paths, as infrastructure projects and basic services have become vulnerable to collapse. The escalation of terrorist activity coincided with the gradual withdrawal of French troops, which were the cornerstone of Western security strategies. These changes are linked to the complexities of the global geopolitical landscape, which has given rise to new alliances and changing roles for international actors. Hence the importance of analyzing the relationship between the escalation of terrorism and its implications for development opportunities in the region. This research aims to provide an in-depth understanding of these interactions and foresee the future repercussions of these geopolitical transformations on the security of the region and the opportunities for sustainable development within it.

The importance of the study:  The study examines the vital link between security and development in West Africa, highlighting the impact of the 2023–2024 French military withdrawal on regional stability. It sheds light on how international changes contribute to security vacuums and shifting power dynamics. The study addresses the history of the emergence of terrorism and the emergence of extremist groups in the West African region.

Study problem: the withdrawal of French troops from West Africa is a major concern about the escalation of terrorist activities and the threat to developmental stability, which raises the question of how this security vacuum affects the growth of terrorism and the reshaping of regional power balances in light of accelerated geopolitical shifts.

Study questions:

Here we ask a number of questions.

1-How did the French withdrawal affect the increase in terrorist activities in West Africa?

2-What are the implications of the escalation of security risks on economic and social development efforts?

3-How can west African countries reformulate their development policies in light of accelerated geopolitical transformations?

Study hypothesis:

The purpose of our research as a hypothesis is to research and explore facts and information about the withdrawal of French troops from West Africa, which contributed to the escalation of terrorist activities and increased security risks.

The security vacuum created by the withdrawal has also exacerbated development challenges, including deteriorating infrastructure and declining investments. In addition, geopolitical changes contributed to the restructuring of regional and international alliances, which opened up new opportunities for security cooperation and development.

 Objective of the study:

The research study aims at a main objective related to security risks in West Africa with the escalation of terrorism, and to assess the impact of the French withdrawal on development challenges , and to achieve this main objective, a set of sub-objectives should be achieved, which are as follows:

The Implications of the French withdrawal on regional security and the escalation of terrorism, in addition to studying the development challenges caused by the deterioration of the security situation, and finally presenting practical proposals to promote sustainable development despite the increasing risks.

The study Method:

Using the descriptive method to achieve the above objectives, we adopt the descriptive approach in collecting, analyzing data and information, to ultimately arrive at specific and clear results that answer the questions posed in the research problem, as all of this data revolves around the repercussions of the French withdrawal and the rise of terrorism on the one hand and, on the other hand, the impact of security risks on development.

In addition to using SWOT Analysis to analyze the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of security risks and development challenges in analyzing the impact of the French withdrawal on the rise of terrorism in West Africa.

Using Through recent reports and the findings organizations of countries based on documented scientific studies, including reports issued by the United Nations and the African Union OECD, AUC, ITC, UNECA, WB, IMVF. The study deals with the monitoring of the following:

2.The consequences of the French withdrawal on the security scene

The French withdrawal from the Sahel region has caused a profound disruption in the security landscape in West Africa, which has provided an opportunity for the emergence of new patterns of violence and the expansion of the influence of terrorist groups. The study refers to the Global Terrorism Index for West African countries, where the list of the ten countries most at risk of terrorism during 2023 included the Global Terrorism Index for the year 2024 on five African countries, including Somalia in the east of the continent, and four countries from West Africa.The most prominent features of terrorist activity in the region during 2023 can be addressed as follows: the countries of the West African region   the so called Central Coast, topped the highest indicators of terrorist threats, Burkina Faso ranked first, as it witnessed the north-west of Burkina Faso

Near the country’s borders with Niger and Mali, the border area known as Liptako Gourma  ^([1])  accounted for almost half of all terrorist attacks in 2023, and the Nusra Front is still the most prominent terrorist group in Burkina Faso. ^([2])

• The security vacuum and the emergence of new patterns of armed violence.

 The border areas between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso are emerging as new centers of terrorist activity, where armed groups take advantage of the fragility of the border to move freely and launch operations against local troops and civilians​ The vacuum has also led to the emergence of new patterns of violence, represented by the intensification of tribal conflicts and local disputes over scarce resources, especially land and water, amid the weak ability of national governments to intervene. ^([3])

The region has also witnessed an increase in criminal violence linked to illegal arms and drug trafficking networks, as these networks have benefited from the absence of effective border control. ^([4])

 In this vacuum, independent local militias have emerged that are not under the authority of the state, exacerbating the lawlessness situation and increasing the rates of internal displacement. ^([5])  This deterioration in security has led to the transformation of rural areas into fertile environments for recruiting young people into the ranks of armed groups, and taking advantage of them. Moreover, armed violence has shown an evolving pattern of using new tactics such as mobile attacks using motorcycles, which has made it more difficult to monitor and neutralize these groups.

    2.2.  Terrorist groups are expanding in the border areas.

Africa is the continent most affected by internal conflicts, and West Africa is no exception The region has witnessed many internal conflicts since the early nineties, with both complex roots and complex issues even since the spread of jihadist terrorism at the beginning, and the deterioration of the security situation in the region is primarily associated with the rise of radical Islam and its violent manifestation of jihadist terrorism, ^([6]).

The security vacuum has facilitated the expansion of terrorist groups across the border areas, taking advantage of the fragility of border control. The study indicates that terrorist groups, especially al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS in the Sahara, took advantage of the fragility of the borders between the countries of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso to expand and expand the Activities of «The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) » and « Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM)”, which took advantage of the weak regional security coordination Their logistical bases. ^([7])

 The study indicates that long and open land borders, such as those extending through the Liptako-Gourma region, have become the scene of the movement of terrorists and the trade in weapons and illegal substances. According to UN reports, uncoordinated local military operations have contributed to the displacement of tens of thousands of people to crowded urban areas, increasing pressure on basic services and infrastructure.

The lesson shows that since September 11, 2001, the African continent has been a battleground for terrorist organizations targeting the interests of Western countries at first: these terrorist activities soon resulted in a state of security instability on the African continent: then it became an obstacle to economic development and regional integration sought by its countries. Because the phenomenon of terrorism is facing the ECOWAS countries, especially weak countries that do not have the economic power to build a strong army, these countries cannot control their territories, and the Sahel region northwest Africa is a storehouse of Natural Resources, and because it is the border line between North and south of the Sahara desert, it is difficult to control it: so the strip of the Sahel and The Sahara is an arena for the free movement of terrorists between the countries of North and West Africa: in addition to the smuggling of weapons, since the beginning of the year 2000, the West African region has known the phenomenon of terrorism, because the conditions were favorable for this and the bad economic,social and political conditions have exacerbated this phenomenon in this region: this situation requires strong and effective policies to address and prevent the spread of terrorism,  the effects of which have been compounded by the presence of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb: the jihad and unification movement in West Africa: and the Ansar Dine group . ^([8]) In addition, armed groups use border areas as strategic havens, taking advantage of the complexity of procedures between the three countries and the difficulty of chasing across the border this new security reality enhances the ability of these groups to plan And the implementation of large-scale complex terrorist operations, taking advantage of the weak resources of the United domestic military.

   Regional security balances changed after the withdrawal of foreign troops2.3

The withdrawal of French  troops has caused a strategic shift in security balances in West Africa (on regional stability in west Africa 2023-2025 specifically in countries like Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso),  as some countries have become more dependent on new partnerships with Russia and Turkey, away from the Western security tradition. ^([9]) Despite the multiplicity of regional initiatives such as the” Sahel Alliance”, however, poor coordination, funding gaps and armament hampered the effectiveness of addressing the escalating threats, the change of regional alliances contributed to the strengthening of irregular dynamics, as some armed groups began to receive direct or indirect support  . ^([10])

The study touched upon the increased competition between regional and international powers for influence, which deepened the complexity of the security scene, and led to the escalation of proxy wars by supporting rival militias in some hot spots. Part of the local public opinion turned to questioning the credibility of foreign security operations, which created a hostile environment for any future interventions and gave impetus to anti-Western groups and the urgent need to adopt a new collective regional vision that enhances the ability of African countries to build independent and sustainable defense systems away from excessive dependence on external forces. ^([11])

Impact on Neighboring States (Regional Dimension):
The French withdrawal intensified cross-border security threats, as terrorist networks (AQIM, ISIS-Sahara) exploited porous borders in the Liptako-Gourma tri-border area (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso) to expand operations, weapon trafficking, and intercommunal violence. This destabilization triggered spillover effects displacement crises, resource conflicts, and eroded state authority across West Africa, straining regional governance frameworks like ECOWAS.

Geopolitical Dimensions:
France’s exit catalyzed a strategic realignment, with Sahel states pivoting toward Russia and Turkey for security partnerships, fostering geopolitical competition that undermines regional cohesion (e.g., Sahel Alliance). Competing external interventions exacerbated proxy dynamics, fragmenting counter-terrorism efforts and deepening institutional fragility, while anti-Western sentiment amplified challenges to multilateral stabilization agendas. ^([12])

3.The impact of security risks on development paths

West Africa is one of the most affected regions by the complex intersection between security threats and development challenges. The escalation of armed conflicts, terrorism and organized crime have contributed to undermining the foundations of sustainable development in the region. This section reviews the most prominent security impacts on infrastructure, investment, and forced displacement chains.

3.1Infrastructure and basic services were damaged.

Critical infrastructure in many West African countries has experienced significant deterioration as a result of ongoing armed conflicts and frequent attacks on service facilities, especially in rural and remote areas. Armed groups have directly targeted road networks, schools and health centers, hampering the provision of basic services to the population.

The attacks on power and water plants have disrupted the daily lives of thousands of citizens and exacerbated the suffering of local communities, especially in open conflict areas such as northern Mali and western Niger. The weak ability of governments to protect these facilities reflects the fragility of the state and the limited security control​.

As armed groups use targeting infrastructure as a means of pressure on central governments, they block access to services for citizens, which deepens the public anger and exacerbates the weak legitimacy of the state, especially in the regions of the Malian North and the Nigerian and Nigerian borders​. The fragile security situation has also led to a sharp decline in maintenance activities and investment in public facilities, as governments or international partners are reluctant to finance infrastructure in light of the high security risks​.^([13]) World Bank reports have documented a decline of more than 35% in the coverage of basic services over the last decade in conflict-affected areas, resulting in  a deterioration of human development indicators in education, health and water.

 This erosion of services has led to a growing dependence on humanitarian organizations and informal actors, which, although they play important roles, do not provide development sustainability and do not compensate for the absence of the state in the long term^([14]). Finally, the deterioration of infrastructure has also contributed to the creation of fertile environments for recruiting young people into the ranks of extremist groups, as the lack of education and health services fuels circles of poverty and marginalization, as indicated by the UN report for 2023 ^([15])

3.2 . The decline in foreign investments and worsening unemployment.

The security unrest has led to the reluctance of foreign capital to enter the Sahel countries, as a result of the escalating risks associated with the absence of stability and the weakening of the rule of law. The OECD report confirmed that many international companies had to stop their operations or leave the region due to the growing insecurity.

In addition, unemployment rates are increasing, especially among young people, due to the stagnation of the productive sectors and the decline in agricultural and industrial investments, which has expanded the cycle of poverty and prepared the ground for the recruitment of young people into the ranks of armed groups and organized crime.

The study, which dealt with the reports of the United Nations Development Program, confirms that the relationship between security and unemployment is close; it is noted that most of those involved in armed conflicts come from socially and economically marginalized groups, which makes addressing unemployment a security priority as well  . ^([16])

3.3 Escalating internal migration crises and forced displacement.

Forced displacement is one of the most prominent manifestations of the escalating security threats in West Africa, where armed attacks have displaced hundreds of thousands of residents, mostly women and children, to safer areas, often unprepared to receive them. The International Organization for Migration IOM confirms that displacement in the African Sahel has become a chronic phenomenon, as some areas are turning into hotbeds of sudden population pressure, lacking basic services and employment opportunities, which creates internal social tensions  . ^([17])

The IOM 2023 report indicates that the data  DTM  of the IOM DTM Displacement Tracking Matrix show that 74% of the individuals surveyed in 2023 in West and Central Africa were traveling within the region for work-related or economic reasons. Looking ahead, the main driver of migration is expected to remain Economic, as people continue to move in search of work and a better standard of living. However, an increasing number of migrants living in fragile situations, including displaced people and refugees, are expected to be forced to flee conflicts or natural disasters, and will have significant humanitarian and protection needs^{. ([18])}

To according the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, displacement not only affects the displaced, but extends to host communities that are already suffering from a lack of resources, exacerbating humanitarian crises and undermining local development efforts. It is clear that the security risks in West Africa  are not limited to their military dimension, but go beyond it to undermine the foundations of development. Infrastructure is collapsing, investment is declining, and displacement is accelerating, requiring integrated regional and international intervention that combines reconstruction, sustainable development, and Community Security.

4.The response of local and international actors

The escalating security risks in West Africa have provoked mixed responses from local and international actors, trying to fill the vacuum left by the French withdrawal. These responses have varied from local attempts to rebuild security structures to regional and international initiatives aimed at promoting stability and countering terrorism This axis handles the interaction of these forces through three main angles.

  4.1The efforts of national governments in the face of security risks

National governments faced huge challenges in filling the security vacuum caused by the withdrawal of foreign troops, especially France. Despite the lack of resources, some countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso have taken the initiative to increase the recruitment of local security elements and develop their field intelligence operations, and countries such as Niger have expanded bilateral security cooperation with countries such as Turkey and Russia, and intensified reliance on local paramilitary units to enhance deployment in rural and border areas, despite concerns associated with weak institutional control On these forces. On the other hand, it has been found that the response of national governments continues to be influenced by internal political interests, which weakens coordination between security institutions and reduces the effectiveness of the collective response ^([19]).  The over-reliance on conventional armies in some countries has contributed to the exposure of remote areas that are not easily reached by the authorities, giving armed groups the ability to expand and local control.

4.2 The role of regional and international organizations in supporting stability.

The last stage witnessed the escalation of the role of regional organizations such as the economic community of West African  States (ECOWAS), which sought to play a more active role in mediation and the deployment of peacekeeping units in some tense hotbeds. However, its efforts are plagued by a lack of military and logistical resource.

At the international level, the United Nations, through its missions such as MINUSMA (United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali) in Mali, has strengthened its presence, although it faces criticism related to the slow response and the limits of the military mandate granted to it.

 On the other hand, the technical and development support programs provided by the European Union and the World Bank have contributed to supporting reconstruction policies and institutional capacity-building in the security and local governance sectors, but the impact of these initiatives remains limited in the face of the scale of security challenges, especially with the absence of an effective coordination mechanism between multiple actors, which leads to duplication or conflicting efforts in some cases​. This undermines the efforts of regional organizations despite the common strength of the alliance of Sahel countries: Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso signed on September 16 , 2023 the alliance agreement for defense cooperation against any military intervention from ECOWAS or neighboring countries, and in order to unite efforts in the fight against terrorism in the “Liptako-Gourma” area, where the borders of the third countries meet. The decision to form the tripartite alliance was also influenced by the imminent departure ” of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali MINUSMA , ^([20])after the end of its mission, and the return of the dormant desire of the Tuareg to take control of the territory from the forces of the national government.

4.3.  International support shifts and the multiplicity of new centers of influence. .^([21])

The French withdrawal has reshaped the map of international influence in West Africa, with new powers such as Russia, Turkey and China emerging as alternative providers of military and development support. It is noted that this transformation reflects the quest of African states to diversify their strategic alliances , but this multiplicity of centers of influence also creates intrastate conflicts and disparate effects on the stability of security policies in troubled countries, especially when combined with support for armed groups or illegal political parties for reasons related to the interests of geopolitical influence.

Security assistance programs have been used as tools of political or economic pressure, which has affected the sovereign decision-making independence of some countries. There is a wide debate about the intersection of military aid with the interests^([22]) of supporting countries more than the goals of real regional security. As to the growing rivalry between the international forces within the region such as France, Russia, America, this makes the region the battleground for the influence that is an unspoken, and adversely affects the stability of local governments and their ability to develop policies.   Terrorist organizations aim to destroy the infrastructure of the state, especially the financial sector , Which has serious implications on the stability of the dollar is not the territory as a whole. The absence of state authority creates a fertile environment for the spread of terrorism.  As pointed out previously, this has enabled the expansion of terrorist organizations such as al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), and Ansar al-Din in northern Mali,  affecting the stability of neighboring countries and posing a threat to stability in the region as a whole. Although efforts to combat terrorism have had some success, the influence and spread of terrorist groups have increased – especially after the events of the Arab Spring – in Africa and some Middle East countries. Extremism and terrorism have particularly proliferated in the West Africa region under study.  The continent of Africa has become a hub for terrorist groups, contributing to ongoing conflicts, rising numbers of refugees, and increased recruitment of young people into terrorist ranks. Thus, terrorism in Africa has become a cross-border phenomenon, leading to a new kind of warfare that is reshaping the security landscape of the continent. This is especially true in West Africa amid the French military withdrawal..  ^([23]) 

5. The Quaternary analysis matrix for assessing security risks and Development challenges in West Africa after the French withdrawal (SWOT Analysis)

The SWOT analysis constitutes a strategic tool for a deeper understanding of the impact of the French withdrawal on the security and development environment in West Africa. This analysis helps to highlight internal strengths and weaknesses, monitor external opportunities and threats that affect the stability of the territory. Through this framework, scenarios for dealing with emerging challenges and formulating more sustainable policies can be developed.    

The African regions face many economic challenges, which have a serious Impact on development at the level of the African continent ; within the African economic blocs, the development opportunities that are imposed on the African regions and hinder the adoption of the best mechanisms to reach their goals, and this challenge is imposed on them by the many and important changes that occur in their internal and external environment; More and more analysis and conclusion is needed to identify each of the points strengths – weaknesses – opportunities – threats of security risks and development challenges in West Africa in accordance with the enormous agricultural potential and natural resources that face many challenges in light of the escalation of terrorism and the emergence of the influence of new centers of armed groups and terrorist hotbeds that continue to survive. In light of the above; the study highlights the strengths that West Africa has of resources within the region to make the maximum possible use of which promotes development with how to provide the necessary climate of political and economic stability, identify the opportunities available to seize them, achieve the hoped and desired development goals, in addition to identifying and identifying weaknesses and threats; To counteract them or reduce their negative effects on the success of opportunities to strengthen the security that undermines terrorism.

Therefore, this may require analyzing all the factors surrounding the West African region, diagnosing its strengths and opportunities, with the aim of not benefiting from them, and their weaknesses and obstacles that stand in the way of their success, in order to adapt to them or avoid them.

Internal factors are called strengths and weaknesses, while external factors are called opportunities and threats, and when conducting such a targeted analysis of the internal and external environment, it is called SWOT Analysis and it can be defined as: a process carried out by a working group to identify strengths and weaknesses in the internal environment of the organization, opportunities and threats in the external environment that affect effectiveness; this contributes to the development of strategies, the development of strengths and opportunities, overcoming weaknesses and threats. ^([24])

 Each of the points strengths – weaknesses – opportunities – threats are as follows: ^([25])

Strengths: the strengths of any organization are: its resources and the extent to which they are available, which can be used to create competitive advantages, or are the advantages and possibilities that the organization has compared to what competitors have .

Weaknesses: these are weaknesses faced by the organization that seriously affect the effectiveness of its performance, and weaknesses should be eliminated as much as possible.

Opportunities: represent the desired basic situation of the organization’s environment, the positive or auxiliary factors available in the organization’s environment, which must be exploited by the entrepreneur, which make the project idea practically achievable, however, they are often beyond the control of the entrepreneur, and they differ from the strengths on the one hand that the latter are positive factors  the former are internal, the former are external positive factors.

Threats: are the undesirable situation of the organization’s environment, or obstacles that make the organization unable to reach its goals and affect its management directly .

A SWOT analysis of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and threats is being conducted to better assess internal strengths and weaknesses, as well as external opportunities and threats.the French withdrawal from West Africa represents a major turning point in the security and development landscape of the region, where ongoing transformations have revealed strengths and future opportunities, but also highlighted new weaknesses and threats. In this context, the quad analysis matrix seeks to provide an integrated assessment of the current situation, supporting decision makers in developing effective strategies.

Table No (1)

Results  of the SWOT analysis of assessing security risks and Development challenges in West Africa after the French withdrawal.

Source: The table was prepared by the researchers based on the following :

-United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Sahel Humanitarian Needs Overview, (New York, UNOCHA, 2023).

-United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, West Africa Drug Report, (Vienna: UNODC, March 2023).

-United Nations Development Programe, Sahel Human Development Report, (New York, NY: UNODC, March 2023).

African Union Commission: “Africa’s Development Dynamics 2022 Regional Value Chains for a Sustainable Recovery: Regional Value Chains for a Sustainable Recovery”, (Paris: AU, OECD Publishing, 2022). ‏

The internal environment in West Africa is a combination of strengths, such as the restructuring of armies, the formation of regional alliances, and the diversification of partnerships, along with the growing public awareness of security, while it is offset by weaknesses such as institutional fragility, weak security coordination worsening humanitarian crises, and escalating corruption. As for the external environment, it opens up opportunities for transformation through the repositioning of international partners and the growing global interest in the region, in contrast to the constant threats of Western withdrawal and the escalation of cross-border terrorism.

Results :

1.The escalation of terrorism and its direct impact on development, the security vacuum has led to an increase in the intensity of terrorist attacks, hindering the implementation of vital development projects and weakening reconstruction efforts.

2 . The decline in foreign direct investment has discouraged foreign investors from entering conflict zones, which has led to a slowdown in economic growth and an increase in unemployment and poverty.

3 . Exacerbating the crises  of internal displacement and migration, terrorist operations have forced hundreds of thousands to leave their regions, increasing the burden on governments and weakening the ability of states to provide basic services.

4 .   Reshaping regional and international alliances, the French withdrawal led to a vacuum that attracted new international powers, creating alternative alliances That may contribute to changing the balance of development and international support.

5. 5. Increasing dependence on humanitarian aid, most of the funding went to urgent relief rather than long -term development investment, which weakened the chances of building resilient economies.

Recommendations:

1 . To  build national security capacities and strengthen security governance, local security agencies should be developed and equipped with expertise and resources to  effectively counter terrorist threats.

2. 2. To formulate flexible and integrated development strategies, development plans should be designed that are able to adapt to the security situation, focusing on productive sectors and modern technologies.

3 . Investing in human capital, education and vocational training should be given top priority to promote employment opportunities and reduce the attractiveness of involvement in armed groups.

5 . Strengthening joint regional action to combat terrorism, regional frameworks such as ECOWAS should be supported to develop joint security and development plans that achieve collective stability in the region.

Conclusion

The study reflects the security and political reality in West Africa highlighting a dual landscape that reflects a contradiction between promising paths and others fraught With security risks. While some countries are showing increasing capacity to rebuild their militaries, forge regional alliances and diversify their partnerships, fragile institutions, worsening humanitarian conditions, and widespread corruption continue to constrain this progress. At the external level, geopolitical transformations, in particular the Western withdrawal and the escalation of cross-border terrorism, pose complex challenges, but at the same time open up opportunities for reshaping the development model away from traditional subordination.

Forward-looking vision

In light of the foregoing, it is based on the fact that achieving sustainable stability in West Africa inevitably depends on two complementary paths: strengthening national and regional security on the one hand, and building a comprehensive development model based on  good Governance,  empowering local communities and investing in infrastructure and human resources on the other. The ability of  the countries of the region to transform current threats into catalysts for economic and social advancement will determine their future, provided that there is political will, coordinated regional efforts, and the adoption of innovative approaches That take into account the specifics of the African context.

List of references

A- Books:

• Fadia djegoubi,”the role of SWOT strategic analysisin improving the performance of the organization case study of El-zeban El-Kantara mills in Sakra”, master thesis(Algeria: Mohamed Khidr University, Faculty of economic , commercial and Management Sciences, 2016.)
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• Amna Fayed, “West Africa: The Expansion of Terrorist Attacks in Light of the Influence of Global Networks,” Journal Issues and Analysis – Africa (Egypt: Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Issue 3, September 2024).
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• Ramy Ashour, “The Future of Terrorism in Africa… as a Manifestation of New Wars in the World,” Journal of Politics and Economics (Egypt: Beni Suef University, Volume 17, Issue 16, September 2022).
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C- Working Papers:

• Boitumelo Nare& Abdul Latif Alhassan: “Regional Trade Integration and Regional Value Chains in Africa” Implications for the Africa Continental Free Trade Area Agreement, Working Paper No. 54/2024, (South Africa: Afreximbank Policy Research Working Paper Series (APRWPS), March 2024).

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• International Organization for Migration, West and Central Africa Displacement Overview Report, (Geneva, Switzerland: IOM, 2023).
• Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Global Security Risks and West Africa: Development Challenges Report, (Berlin, OECD, 2012).
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• United Nations Development Programe, Sahel Human Development Report, (New York, NY: UNODC, March 2023)
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World Bank, Resilience in the Sahel: Development under Pressure, (Washington, D.C: 20

 ([1]) The Liptako–Gourma Authority is a regional organization seeking to develop the contiguous areas of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso

https://dtm.iom.int/report-product-series/liptako-gourma-crisis-monthly-dashboard

 ([2])Amna Fayed, “West Africa: The Expansion of Terrorist Attacks in Light of the Influence of Global Networks,” Journal Issues and Analysis – Africa (Egypt: Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Issue 3, September 2024).

 ([3]) World Bank, Building Resilience in the Sahel Annual Report, (Washington, D.C.: WB, March 2023),P.14.

 ([4]) United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, West Africa Drug Report, (Vienna : UNODC, March 2023),P.11.

 ([5]) United Nations Development Programe, Sahel Human Development Report, (New York, NY: UNODC, March 2023),P.22.

 ([6]) Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Global Security Risks and West Africa: Development Challenges Report, (Berlin,:OECD, 2012),P.P.37,40.

 ([7]) Ibid,. P.27.

([8])  Madi Ibrahim Kanti,” the role of the economic community of West African States ECOWAS in the fight against terrorism in West Africa”, PhD thesis  (Egypt,  Cairo: University Graduate School of African Studies- Department of political systems, 2019).

 ([9]) United Nations, Report of the Security Council for 2023, (New York, NY: UN, 2024),P.12.

 ([10]) World Bank, Building Resilience in the Sahel: Regional Perspectives, (Washington,D.C:, 2023),P.19.

 ([11]) OECD, : OP.Cit. P28

 ([12]) OECD, Ibid,P.P 28-29.

 ([13]) World Bank, Resilience in the Sahel: Development under Pressure, (Washington, D.C:WB, 2023),P.18.

 ([14]) United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Sahel Humanitarian Needs Overview, (New York,:UNOCHA, 2023),P.20.

 ([15]) United Nations Development Programme, Sahel Human Development Report, (New York,:UNDP, 2023),P.20.

 ([16]) United Nations Development Programme, Sahel Human Development Report, : OP.Cit. P26.

 ([17]) International Organization for Migration, West and Central Africa Displacement Overview Report, (Geneva, Switzerland,:IOM, 2023),P.P.13,14.

 ([18])Ibid,P.14.

 ([19]) United Nations Development Programme,:OP.Cit. P.32.

 ([20])The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali, was a UN peace mission in Mali established in 2013. Its mandate included supporting the political process, stabilizing the country, protecting civilians, and promoting human rights. MINUSMA was eventually withdrawn at the request of the Malian government in 2023. https://minusma.unmissions.org/en/history

 ([21])  Hakim Aladi Najmuddin, “Terrorism in West Africa and the Sahel: Post-Political Regime Change and Alternative Initiatives to Combat It,” Journal Issues and Analysis – Africa (Egypt: Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Issue 3, September 2024).

 ([22]) OECD, :OP.Cit. P.48.

 ([23])Ramy Ashour, “The Future of Terrorism in Africa… as a Manifestation of New Wars in the World,” Journal of Politics and Economics (Egypt: Beni Suef University, Volume 17, Issue 16, September 2022).

 ([24])  Zakaria Mohammed Zakaria Heiba, Mahmoud Ali Ahmed al-Sayed, “environmental analysis using the SWOT model) in education, its concept and mechanisms of application”, Journal of Educational Sciences Saudi Arabia:( King Saud University, Issue 4, Issue 1, October 2016).

 ([25]) Fadia djegoubi,”The role of SWOT strategic analysisin imporoving the performance of the organization case study of El-zeban El-Kantara mills Sakra’’, Master thesis (Algeria: Mohamed Khidr University, Faculty of economic, commercial and Management Sciences, 2016).