Prepared by the researcher : Dr. Rana Al-Sayed Abdel Latif – researcher interested in political affairs and climate change
Democratic Arabic Center
Climate change is one of the most pressing global issues of our time, which has placed it at the forefront of the agenda of all international and regional meetings. Climate action has become one of the sustainable development goals directly, represented by Goal Thirteen, and indirectly affecting the rest of the sustainable development goals. . For example, but not limited to, according to published scientific reports, climate change threatens the production of agricultural crops, and thus threatens global food security, which may hinder the achievement of the second goal of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals related to eliminating hunger. Africa Agenda 2063 also placed the issue of climate change and environmental aspects among its goals that it seeks to achieve, which includes identifying five regional technology centers, linked to national bodies dedicated to climate technology, and programs on climate change targeting women and youth.
With regard to Egypt, according to studies published at the local and international levels, violent weather events (heat waves, torrential rains, dust storms), as well as rising sea levels, represent the most important negative impacts resulting from climate change on the Arab Republic of Egypt, even though it is one of the least affected countries in the world. Contribution to greenhouse gas emissions (anthropogenic).
Before discussing the issue of climate change and its effects on Egypt, and the efforts of the Egyptian state to address it – especially in light of Egypt’s hosting of the COP27 conference, and the opportunities it poses that can be exploited to address the problem of providing the necessary financing needs to confront the impact of climate change on Egypt and the rest of the developing countries – The important thing is to begin by clarifying the basic concepts around which this issue revolves, in order to remove confusion about some of the scientific differences that have been raised about whether these changes are due to natural causes or the result of human interventions? Thus, identifying the differences between natural global warming and global warming; There has been confusion between them in our Arabic writings, in addition to determining responsibility and distinguishing between the countries responsible and those affected or not.
First: the differences between natural climate changes and those resulting from human activities
There are a number of differences that scientists have observed between natural and anthropogenic climate changes, which can be explained as follows:
1 – Natural climate changes and the Earth’s thermal balance
Global warming is one of the important natural phenomena that has helped living organisms to continue on Earth. It works to regulate and balance the loss and gain of energy within the atmosphere through the presence of a number of natural gases in the atmosphere, namely: carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, which work to trap a large portion of the heat resulting from the Earth’s absorption of sunlight. They are visible rays that are absorbed by seas, oceans, and land. The Earth, in turn, emits heat rays into the atmosphere, and then greenhouse gases trap most of that heat within the atmosphere.
The speed and quantity of thermal radiation from the surfaces of seas, oceans, and land differ as a result of their different surface types. Thus, land radiates heat after absorbing solar rays at a faster rate than seas and oceans. Natural greenhouse gases play an important role through their natural cycle in the atmosphere; It is absorbed by lands, wood trees (forests), and oceans, and then returns again to the atmosphere, as a result of the decomposition of leaves and tree trunks, or their burning, or their deposition in the bodies of some living organisms and their death and decomposition, or their entry into some non-living formations such as shells and pebbles. Seas and oceans, which decompose over time to return gases to the atmosphere. The seas, oceans, ice poles, and Earth’s vegetation (forests) also play a role in the process of balance, variability, and natural change in the Earth’s climate.
It can be said that the increase in solar radiation reaching the Earth as a result of the Earth’s rotation around the sun in the form of an ellipse, which makes it approach the sun every average of about 11 thousand years, caused the Earth to warm, and thus the Earth’s climate changed naturally, as a result of the increase in solar radiation arriving. For the Earth, its average surface temperature rises, and sometimes it leads to its cooling as a result of volcanoes that release millions of tons of vapors, gases, and dust that block the sun’s rays from reaching the Earth, and thus a decrease in the average surface temperature of the Earth occurs. Hence, it is clear that the Earth has gone through natural cycles of climate change during the past 650,000 years. There have been about seven ice ages so far, the last of which was 12 thousand years ago.
2 – The phenomenon of anthropogenic climate change (current global warming)
There are a number of manifestations of climate change, which scientists have monitored, namely the acceleration in the rise in the average temperature of the Earth at unprecedented rates compared to what previously occurred during natural climate cycles over the past centuries, and the temperature of the polar and glacial regions rising above their natural rates, which led to an acceleration in Melting of ice sheets and glaciers, and thus a rise in sea level, and an increase in the intensity, intensity and frequency of unruly weather events such as: hurricanes, torrents, droughts, hot and cold waves, dust, sand and ice storms, forest fires… etc., and an increase in ocean acidity above normal. Natural.
The rapid rise in the average temperature of the Earth leads to changes that living organisms are unable to adapt to compared to natural changes, especially plants because they do not move from their places, and therefore their ability to adapt is less compared to other living organisms.
Scientific reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that the global warming that is occurring now is the result of human development activities. This is for several reasons: First, burning fossil fuels such as coal, gasoline, diesel, gas, and others to produce energy, as burning fuel is currently the main cause of emissions, whether this fuel is used to produce electricity or rotate the engines of factories or various means of transportation, in addition to industrial operations and burying waste. and agricultural intensification. Secondly, cutting down forests that store carbon or absorb carbon to produce wood or use land for agricultural or industrial activities or for construction and expansion of cities and roads. These human activities caused the accumulation of carbon emissions in large quantities of greenhouse gases (called anthropogenic), which accumulated in the atmosphere. Due to the inability of natural systems (lands, trees, and oceans) to absorb and store it in excess of natural rates, in addition to cutting down vast areas of forests that were carbon absorbers. Third, in addition to increasing emissions of natural gases such as: carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide above their levels in the atmosphere, humans have also created a group of industrial gases, such as sulfur hexafluoride, which is used as an insulating material, the group of hydrofluorocarbons gases, and the group of perfluorocarbons gases. It is used in many industrial processes that require cooling, such as air conditioners. These created gases perform a similar action to natural carbon gases and trap the heat rising from the surface of the Earth. Thus, trapping heat/energy within the atmosphere in greater proportions than natural rates leads to an imbalance in the Earth’s climate.
Much scientific evidence has been collected from space visits about the role of greenhouse gases in raising the temperature of the various planets in the solar system, as well as about the relationship of carbon dioxide concentrations in the Earth’s atmosphere over time, comparing the period before and after the Third Industrial Revolution, which showed Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in ice sections representing different eras using radioactive carbon from 280 parts per million before the industrial era to about 417 parts per million currently, which confirms the existence of a link between carbon emissions and increased global warming.
Second: The negative effects of climate change on Egypt
Egypt is located in North Africa, bordered by the Mediterranean Sea to the north, and the Red Sea to the east. The dominant feature of the northern coastal region is the low-lying Nile River Delta, with its large cities, industrial, agricultural, and tourist areas. The delta and narrow valley of the Nile River make up 5.5% of Egypt’s area, but are home to more than 95% of its population and agriculture. Egypt is located between latitudes 22 degrees and 32 degrees north and longitudes 25 degrees and 36 degrees east.
The region known as Upper Egypt is located south of 30 degrees north latitude, and is hot and dry. The northern part of the Nile Delta and the northern coast, known as Lower Egypt, has a Mediterranean or coastal climate. Egypt’s large population (about 104 million people) is also among the factors that make the country highly vulnerable to climate change.
Although Egypt’s emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in 2018, according to the World Bank, amounted to 329,220.00 kilotons of carbon dioxide equivalent, an increase of 2.76% over 2017, which is about 0.7% of total global emissions according to the World Bank, The densely populated Nile Delta is seriously threatened by sea level rise, and climate change will also have an impact on citizens’ health. Studies have been conducted in an attempt to analyze possible adaptation measures, and some vulnerability assessment studies have been carried out in priority sectors as part of the development of the National Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan; It emphasized that various development sectors will be vulnerable to many risks as a result of rising sea levels, increasing intensity, severity and frequency of violent weather events, and limited water resources. These changes are expected to affect agriculture, coastal areas, aquaculture, fisheries, and human settlements. Urban areas, biodiversity, and human health.
Egypt has advanced one place compared to 2019 to rank 21st in the 2021 CCPI, with an overall average rating; The country receives mixed ratings in the four main CCPI categories. For greenhouse gas emissions and energy use, Egypt’s performance is rated as high. As for climate policy, Egypt received an average rating, and in renewable energy, it received a very low rating. It is worth noting that Egypt has not set a specific target for greenhouse gas emissions for the year 2050, but the government launched a climate change strategy during the COP26 conference.
Third: Policies and mechanisms to address the effects of climate change
Institutional building is one of the important axes for dealing with the issue of climate change. To achieve this, the National Council for Climate Change was restructured, making Egypt one of the few countries in the world that has a mini-cabinet for climate change, headed by the Prime Minister, by Resolution No. 1129 of 2019, with a membership of 7. From the relevant ministers (Foreign Affairs, Environment, Planning, Finance, Agriculture and Water Resources, and Local Development, in addition to a representative of the Ministry of Defense) as well as representatives of the private sector, civil society organizations, and research centers; With the aim of integrating the concepts and procedures necessary to deal with climate change into sectoral plans and strategies through a unified national strategy.
A summary of that strategy was launched on the sidelines of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in November 2021, and then the strategy was finally launched on May 30, 2022. According to the published summary, the strategy works to achieve five main goals, which are:
The first goal: achieving sustainable economic growth
This goal means achieving low-emission development in various sectors, by increasing the share of renewable and alternative energy sources in the energy mix, expanding them by establishing wind farms, solar power plants, producing energy from waste and expanding the use of bioenergy, in addition to developing new technologies to absorb Using renewable energy sources such as intelligent control systems, and exploring new alternative energy sources such as green hydrogen and nuclear energy. In addition to increasing the use of renewable energy to generate electricity within industrial facilities, applications of solar thermal energy in industrial processes, phasing out coal and switching to low-carbon fuels.
Second goal: Building resilience and ability to adapt to climate change, by mitigating the negative impacts associated with climate change
This depends on protecting citizens from the negative health effects of climate change, through improving health services, increasing the health sector’s readiness to confront diseases resulting from climate change, preparing studies, training health sector workers, and educating citizens. Also, preserving natural resources and ecosystems from the effects of climate change by improving their ability to adapt, and promoting the adoption of an approach based on linking efforts to address the loss of biodiversity, climate change, land degradation and desertification, and preserving reserves.
In addition to preserving the country’s resources and assets from the effects of climate change, through developing non-traditional water resources, preserving agricultural lands, improving crop management systems, protecting fish wealth, preserving historical and cultural heritage from the negative effects of climate change, and selecting sites for new development communities. Away from the hotspots most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
Second goal: Building resilience and ability to adapt to climate change, by mitigating the negative impacts associated with climate change
This depends on protecting citizens from the negative health effects of climate change, through improving health services, increasing the health sector’s readiness to confront diseases resulting from climate change, preparing studies, training health sector workers, and educating citizens. Also, preserving natural resources and ecosystems from the effects of climate change by improving their ability to adapt, and promoting the adoption of an approach based on linking efforts to address the loss of biodiversity, climate change, land degradation and desertification, and preserving reserves.
In addition to preserving the country’s resources and assets from the effects of climate change, through developing non-traditional water resources, preserving agricultural lands, improving crop management systems, protecting fish wealth, preserving historical and cultural heritage from the negative effects of climate change, and selecting sites for new development communities. Away from the hotspots most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
Third goal: Improving governance and management of work in the field of climate change
This requires defining the roles and responsibilities of various stakeholders in order to achieve strategic objectives, improve Egypt’s position in the international ranking of climate change actions to attract more investments and climate financing opportunities, and reform sector policies necessary to accommodate the interventions required to mitigate the effects of climate change, adapt to it, and enhance Institutional, procedural and legal arrangements such as the Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system.
Fourth goal: Improving the infrastructure for financing climate activities
To achieve this goal, work will be done to promote local green banking, green credit lines, promote innovative financing mechanisms that prioritize adaptation measures such as green bonds, private sector participation in financing climate activities and the promotion of green jobs, and alignment with the guidelines of the Multilateral Development Banks (MDB). To finance climate activities, and build on the success of existing climate financing programmes. As well as promoting scientific research, technology transfer, knowledge management and awareness to combat climate change, and raising awareness about climate change among various stakeholders (policy/decision makers, citizens, students).
Fourth: The adequacy of international financing sources to confront the impact of climate change on Egypt
There is no doubt that the presence of a national strategy will contribute directly to identifying the financing needs for implementing the state’s executive sectoral plans. For example, but not limited to, the strategy will contribute to developing the national plan for adaptation to climate change, which began in 2020 through funding of $ $3 million from the Green Climate Fund. It will also benefit from the interactive map project of climate change risks to the Arab Republic of Egypt, which is being carried out in three stages in cooperation between the Ministry of Environment, the Military Survey Administration, the General Meteorological Authority, and the Water Research Center of the Ministry of Water Resources. And irrigation; With the aim of helping decision makers identify areas exposed to potential risks from climate change that may affect the implementation of the state’s development plan, and thus determine the necessary measures in the various development sectors. As well as seizing financing opportunities for adaptation from international bodies. The first phase has been completed, and technical tests are underway to complete the implementation of the second phase. A study has also begun on the project to transform climate financing systems to provide long-term loans and technical support to a number of projects, at a cost of 150 million euros, through joint financing between the French Agency. Development and the Green Climate Fund by focusing on four sectors, namely sustainable tourism, waste management, water and sanitation, and transportation. This loan will be managed by a number of national banks.
From all of the above, it is clear that the state is producing an integrated approach to comprehensively confront the effects of climate change and reduce emissions to achieve development in a sustainable manner. Work is underway to improve this system by granting a clear and specific role to the ministries of planning, finance and international cooperation so that concepts related to climate change can be integrated within The state’s plan for sustainable development 2030, providing the necessary financial credits and benefiting from available investment opportunities such as carbon trading projects and others. The important role of civil society in supporting the state’s efforts cannot be overlooked, as civil society organizations, through the Specific Federation of Environmental Civil Society Associations, have implemented many activities and partnerships to raise awareness of climate change and its potential risks and the role of individuals and communities in the confrontation process. The Arab Bureau for Youth and Environment also manages the Small Grants Fund of the Global Environment Facility to finance implementation projects for civil society organizations that help recycle agricultural waste for the production of biogas or compost and afforestation, and spread the use of solar heaters, energy saving bulbs, and others.
In conclusion, the role of the global climate action system at the United Nations and international agreements, most notably the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, whose twenty-seventh session (COP27) will be hosted by Egypt, must be emphasized in making available, providing and facilitating access to the necessary financing to assist in the process of transition towards low-income economies. Carbon is able to confront shocks and crises resulting from climate change and adapt to its resulting impacts. As well as providing mechanisms to compensate losses and those affected by climate impacts, while emphasizing the importance of transparency and balance in distributing financing between emissions reduction (mitigation) and adaptation, implementing programs to build the capabilities of developing countries through specialized experts, and providing a window for debt swaps between developed and developing countries as one of the alternatives that It helps developing countries reduce the burdens on them, so that they can protect fragile and poor communities from the effects of climate change, pay attention to health programs, limit the spread of diseases related to weather conditions, and benefit from the lessons of the Covid-19 pandemic. Because the harm may ultimately affect everyone, both developing and developed countries, if failure to take the necessary measures continues.
