Measuring the impact of total population and GDP on international capital flows using the ARDL model in Algeria for the period (2000 – 2023)

Prepared by the researche : Dr. Shaymaa Rasheed Mohaisen, Lect. Ibtihal Nahi Shaker, Lect. Ali Omran Hussein – University of Karbala / College of Administration and Economics / Iraq

Democratic Arabic Center

International Journal of Economic Studies : Thirty-second Issue – February 2025

A Periodical International Journal published by the “Democratic Arab Center” Germany – Berlin

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Abstract

International flows have a significant and scientifically important impact on achieving the desired growth for any country. These flows are very sensitive in their transmission. The appropriate conditions and economic environment must be provided for this. Hence, the research attempted to study the impact of the variables of population growth and domestic product growth on international capital flows in the State of Algeria for the period (2000 – 2023). This study examines two axes. To analyze and assess the nature of the connection between the variables under investigation and their trends, two methods were used: the first was the theoretical framework (population growth, economic growth, international capital flows); the second was standard analysis (population growth, economic growth, international capital flows); while the results were conducted using the program (9Eviews) and the (ARDL) model. The researchers make the assumption that there is a substantial long-term link between the dependent variable, the amount of foreign capital flows to the State of Algeria, and the independent variables, population growth and GDP growth. Additionally, the researchers show a substantial and statistically significant link between the independent and dependent variables. The research reached a set of conclusions and recommendations to realize the importance of population growth and GDP growth in international capital flows and their usefulness in achieving stability and economic goals, whether in the short or long term within the economy. 

Introduction :

The international movement of capital flows is part of the international monetary system as an international monetary variable in terms of its work and consistency with the system itself. The movement of flows also expresses changes in the monetary system and has a greater impact on it. The qualitative and structural distribution of these financial flows has changed over time, which is not surprising given that these flows have relative disparities that depend on global developments in the economic system. The importance of the movement of loans and foreign aid increased relatively in the eighties and nineties of the last century, as it recorded the highest rate of international capital movement. This is largely in line with the state of the economic development conditions of the Third World countries in light of the recent independence and the attempt to confirm independence through the slogan of independent development. Despite all the concerns surrounding these flows, developing countries sought to attract them, so many countries moved towards adopting economic reform policies and restructuring their economies in an effort to achieve economic stability, reduce the balance of payments deficit, integrate economically with developed nations, and open the doors of international companies’ investment within the global trade movement. International flows, their liberalization with the outside world and their efforts to integrate with the global trade movement have achieved many benefits, including the effective distribution of savings, the transfer of resources to productive uses, the facilitation of portfolio diversification, the reduction of risks, financial services specialization, and increased productivity and innovation.

Research has shown that there is a connection between national economic factors and global capital flows. The issue is the way that changes in the two variables—population growth and GDP growth—affect the flow of capital. Are they considered an effective instrument for accomplishing and quickening economic development in Algeria, the significance of the study can be highlighted that Algeria is an oil-based nation that supports the development process, and the researchers can understand how population and GDP growth contribute to the country’s ability to draw in international capital and investments, On the other side, the study objectives lie in several points that can be formulated as follows:

• A thorough explanation is given of the types of foreign capital flows, their economic role in attaining development, and their significance for host nations.
• Examining the connection between Algeria’s foreign capital flows and the study variables (population and GDP growth).

The study makes the assumption that the amount of foreign capital flows to the State of Algeria, a dependent variable, and the independent variables of population growth and GDP growth have a long-term, meaningful connection.

• Literature Review

Population growth is the sum of the changes that occur in the population size in a given society, which may be an increase or a decrease. It can also be said that population growth is the change or development of the population, and this change may be positive when the population increases, and it may be negative when the population decreases. From here we understand that population growth may be either positive or negative (Tariq,2017:411). In its most basic form, population growth is the difference between the birth and death rates. This discrepancy is referred to as “natural increase. The population grows at a rate of 25 per 1000 people, or 2.5%, when there are 35 births and 10 deaths per 1000 people per year. Doubling time, or the amount of time it will take for the population to double at the present growth rate, is another approach to conceptualize population growth rates. The population will double in around 28 years if it rises at a pace of 2.5 percent. What is meant by population growth is their change, from less to more, and the change may be from more to less. In addition, Ben Daoudia Samir examined the connection between foreign currency reserves and FDI flows using the ARDL model. Results demonstrated a positive long-term relationship between reserves and investment. Also, Zaghbib Samir focused on the relationship between FDI and GDP and the results confirmed a long-term impact between the two variables.

Khaled Abdul Rauf et al. looked at how population growth affected economic indicators including labor market expansion and domestic demand. They also observed how the population indirectly increased foreign capital flows. Moreover, Ahmed al-Mansouri examined the relationship between inflation, GDP and FDI, and population change depending on the natural population change (meaning the increase or decrease of the population due to births and deaths) and the mechanical population change (meaning the increase or decrease of the population due to migration from and to the country or region in which they live). With population growth rates significantly lower than those of many developed and civilized countries, such as those in Western Europe, North America, Japan, and Australia, the researchers conclude that Algeria is still in the growth phase, which will last for a long time and can be described as rapid growth.

The change in population size, whether rise or decrease, is termed population growth. In population studies, population growth is a crucial issue because it influences the dynamic nature of society, which is defined by the way the population grows or shrinks numerically. This nature is reflected in daily activities, such as (Musa Samha,2014 : 115). The Factors that determining population growth are fertility which means the phenomenon of childbirth in a specific society and is expressed by live births number, i.e. Total number of births represent factor of increase in society, and its rates differ between countries and can also differ within a single society due to social, economic and environmental factors; the death rate that represents the factor of decrease in population, it is a major variable that enables us to know the movement of population in the past and project it into the future; The migration that represents the movement of an individual or group of individuals between two countries or within the same country between two locations on its territory (According to the International Organization for Migration). The term is derived from the word migration, which means leaving one’s original location (place of residence) and moving to another. Another factor contributing to population expansion is migration. The impact of migration on growth or decline is dictated by its trends (Ahmed Bourezq ,2018 :280).

In addition to the fact that population issues that impact some countries cannot be isolated from those that affect other countries worldwide, the route of economic progress is likely to be hampered by the increasing population growth, particularly in nations with limited resources. Among these effects, the researchers mention the following (Hussein Adha , 2011 : 12 ):-

1. The impact of population growth on per capita GDP:- If rapid population growth is not accompanied by effective policies within the scope of economic development, the gap between birth and death rates and the resulting high natural increase have a negative impact on the members of society’s standards of living. Additionally, since the per capita product is calculated by dividing the gross national product by the population, the increase in the population will result in the decrease in the per capita product.
2. The impact of population growth on savings: Savings are the portion of income that has not been consumed, and population growth is seen as having a negative impact on savings as a result of declining incomes. The expansion of family size makes a large portion of income spent on consumption, causing savings to decline. As long as most developing countries suffer from low income and population growth, total savings will become very weak.
3. The impact of population growth on investment: Population growth leads to a low level of real income, thus low production per capita and a low standard of living, and thus little or no capital formation, which is reflected in small investments.
4. The impact of population growth on public spending: The increase in population size puts high pressure on public spending on social services, which increases the size of its investments in the services sector to complete the infrastructure sectors, which reflects the low investments in the productive sectors.
5. How population expansion affects employment: While population growth expands the labor pool, if it is not proportionate to the available resources, the extra labor does not boost output. Instead, it will result in higher unemployment rates and lower salaries, which will lower the degree of qualification of the future workforce since low wages will affect the population’s educational structure.

Economic growth, according to Ashwaq bin Qaddour (2012), is the steady rise in the amount of commodities and services generated by individuals within a certain economic context. In order to provide productive and social services, protect the resources represented from pollution, and prevent the depletion of non-renewable resources, real income must rise steadily and cumulatively over a long period of time (a quarter of a century) in order to outpace the rate of population growth (Suhaila Farid, 2015:31). In order to raise the average per capita share of real income, economic development also entails raising the gross national income or gross domestic product (Ajamiya, 2003: 71). Additionally, the entire monetary value of finished products and services generated inside the local economy by the production factors existing in the geographical location for a certain time period, often one year, is known as the gross domestic product. Both the income approach and the spending technique are used to define the output. The total revenue of the three production components—labor, land, and capital—that were present in the geographic area and contributed to the production process during a certain time period—one year—is known as the income method. The expenditure method, on the other hand, encompasses net foreign dealings (exports – imports), government investment spending, and private consumer spending. It is defined as the total values of goods and services directed to meet the total demand in society (i.e., the total final expenditure). (Planning Ministry, 2014:19)

GDP gives us a comprehensive view of a nation’s economic development, which is typically accompanied by more wealth and job opportunities. However, this metric does not indicate whether the growth is temporary or sustainable or whether it will have an adverse impact on the economy over the medium or long term. Numerous variables might cause a nation’s GDP to rise or fall. (Jordi Guillamón: 2024):

1. Higher production: If businesses generate more products and services, the GDP will rise.
2. Increased investment: Businesses that make investments in expansion, new technology, or machines stimulate economic development.
3. Higher consumption: Higher consumer spending has the potential to boost GDP growth and output.
4. Public expenditure: Higher GDP may result from more public spending, such as infrastructure investment.
5. Net exports: A nation’s GDP will increase if its exports exceed its imports, but a trade deficit would lower it.
6. External factors: A nation’s GDP may be greatly impacted by international economic events, natural catastrophes, or financial crises.

The researchers also categorized innovation and technology, human capital, and physical capital as factors that influence economic development. The production processes that tend to produce an increasing amount of products and services are said to benefit from the physical capital. As a result, capital accumulation’s production per capita has grown to such an extent that it was once thought to be the only driver of growth. Any society may expand its productive capacity by raising its real capital stock as long as it has investment opportunities that were previously unavailable. Capital accumulation must eventually show a decline in return on capital in accordance with the decline in its marginal productivity with each increase in the quantity used in the production process if it is to become the sole source of growth, according to the marginal productivity theory. (Ajamiya ,2003 : 77).  Also, human capital is regarded as one of production process inputs and as one of components of production as a single system. The types of work vary from the skilled mechanic to the scientist or the perfumer because the value that society assigns to each of their outputs in a given amount of time (for instance, an hour) is different from that of other productions. It is noted that the recommendation of work is positively linked to some important matters, including improvements in the health of the population and their longevity, and these matters, of course, are desirable as goals, but these issues have results that are reflected in the level of production and productivity. On the other hand, the aspects related to the quality of human capital, which is education and technical training at its various levels from simply teaching how to operate a machine to teaching how one can be a scientist. There is no doubt that education and training are required to improve the quality of work, in order to invent, operate, manage and repair large, complex machines in the midst of the great technological development during the last hundred years (/www.djelfa.info). As well as the Innovation and Technology can contribute to the growth of national income significantly. This becomes clear if the researchers assume that the portion of society’s resources directed to the production of capital goods is barely sufficient to replace capital when it becomes obsolete. Therefore, national income will grow due to the progress of technical knowledge, not due to the accumulation of more capital. This type of increase in income can come either through the progress of technical knowledge within society or through the import of this technical knowledge from abroad Al-Hasani ,2018: 98).

One of the primary components of production that allows for the investment of different economic resources is capital. The international monetary and financial system’s responsibilities include reducing the unequal distribution of this money among nations. “The movement of funds from one country to another to purchase assets from the second country,” according to the definition of international capital flows, “includes physical assets like machinery and real estate as well as long-term financial bonds, particularly stocks” (Al-Taie , 2020:71). The transfer of capital-related rights from one or more legal or natural persons, or from a civil or governmental agency in one country to another, is another definition of international flows. All types of capital, including cash, bonds, and securities, are considered capital. Non-residents’ purchases of local assets, to which gifts are added, are represented by inbound capital flows, but non-residents’ sales of local assets indicate a negative inward capital flow. Similarly, residents’ purchases of foreign assets are measured by outward capital flows, while residents’ sales of foreign assets indicate negative outward capital flows. Because the level of international commerce in products and services reflects a certain volume of capital flows, the origin of capital flows may be seen as reflecting in-kind transfers between nations. (Ajam,2001:103).

The concept of international capital flows can be limited to Money is the transfer of money or rights arising from it from group or individual of individuals ,  civil , governmental institution from one country to another for the purposes of employment in the economic field, i.e. the transfer of purchasing power between two countries with the aim of employing it in economic investment operations and in various fields of investment, such as – buying stocks and bonds, buying land and real estate, establishing or participating in productive commodity and service projects, or lending for interest or depositing it with the aim of avoiding economic and political risks or employing it in fruitful credit operations. The real reason for this transfer is due to the unequal distribution of capital between countries or that the actual demand for capital differs from one country to another, which results in countries differing among themselves in interest rates that are considered capital equivalents. Capital moves from a country with relative abundance to a country with relative scarcity of capital.

According to Nazih, 2008 international capital flows types are divided into two types: short-term flows and long-term flows. The short-term flows include the volume of trade credit, the transfer of working capital within companies, the transfer of wealth into securities, financial assets in commercial banks, foreign currencies, and short-term foreign assets. These flows depend on changes in the interest rate: For example, if the interest rate rises, capital will move into the country where the interest rate rose, and vice versa, if the interest rate falls, capital will move abroad, expectations in the exchange rate which means the risks resulting from changes in the exchange rate may prevent individuals and push them to transfer their investments to other countries even if there are relative differences in interest and the state of political stability in the country which  will generate encouragement to attract capital to the country, and vice versa, if the country is politically unstable, it will push the movement of capital out of the country. Also, the Long-term flows that depend on several factors such as relative changes in the exchange rate and interest rate If the interest rate rises, it will encourage investors to inject more of their capital and lend larger amounts of capital and make broader investments, and vice versa if the interest rate falls. Similarly, the exchange rate affects the desire to hold foreign currency to settle obligations arising in the future and vice versa. In addition, the opportunities for achieving profits between countries can stimulate the flow of funds from within to outside to achieve profits, as this process is known as risk because it may bear a relatively uncertain risk in the future.

Diallo,1999 clarified The movement of international capital and its effect on the economy of both the countries importing and exporting capital as follows

The country exporting capital:

• Increasing the exports of the country exporting capital, as the products provided by the invested capital and sold in the importing country are considered exports to the exporting country.
• Realizing profits from investment abroad.
• Opening the way for other capitals to obtain investment opportunities.
• The possibility of imposing control (economic or political) on the country importing capital.

The country importing capital:

• Increasing purchasing power or increasing the value of the local currency.
• Helping to implement local economic development programs and plans.
• Developing scientific and technological progress, especially if the import of capital is coupled with the import of foreign expertise and competencies.
• The increase in employment activity may lead to absorbing unemployment, thus increasing production, increasing the trade volume, and improving the balance of payments.
• Methodology

The researchers as shown in table (1) find that the population and economic growth rates and net imports in Algeria during the research period (2000-2023) witnessed fluctuations between rise and fall, as the compound growth rate of population growth during it was estimated at (1.70%), which is an acceptable growth rate. The rural migration to cities, which was accompanied by an increase in the percentage of school students and a decrease in the illiteracy rate, which was reflected in the demographic growth movement in Algeria on the one hand, and the improvement of the standard of living, including health care and educational conditions, all of which contributed to a decrease in the death rate and an increase in the birth rate. The decrease in the natural population growth rate is not considered a solution to economic and social problems if it is not accompanied by economic growth. From table (1), the researchers note that the compound growth rate of the gross domestic product reached (6.3%), while the compound growth rate of incoming flows to Algeria from abroad also reached approximately (6.3%). The process of external borrowing is often associated with a significant increase in luxury consumption and corruption of governments that borrow heavily to pay for the standard of living of their people in an unregulated manner, which increases the burden on countries. This is due to the unfair distribution of income in Algeria, as it does not take into account changes in population growth indicators. Consequently, the researcher will try to build an economic model to measure the impact of population and economic growth on incoming flows in Algeria, where it is possible to build an economic model that explains the relationship between population and economic growth on the one hand and incoming flows from abroad on the other hand.

Table 1. Net inflows, GDP and total population in Algeria for the period (2000-2023)

Source: https://data.albankaldawli.org/

• Columns (2), (4), (6) were calculated by the researchers. -:
• The simple growth rate was calculated according to the following formula
• The compound growth rate was calculated according to the following formula:
• Model description

ARDL is one of the methods that does not require variables included in model to be integrated of same order, as it can be used if the variables are integrated of degree zero I(0) or integrated of degree one I(1) or a combination of both. The researchers will conduct the expanded Dickey-Fuller test for the unit root that shows the stability of the time series and determines their integration order, and then the (VAR) will be tested to determine the optimal lag periods using the autoregressive model, also the (ARDL) model will be estimated to test the existence of a long-term joint integration relationship using the bounds test. Using the EViews 9 program, the data will be tested in Algeria for the period (2000-2023) according to the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model between population growth, GDP growth, and international capital flows, (Net inflows = FDI, GDP = GDP, Total population = PO). Accordingly, the variables (GDP, PO) are the independent variables, and the variable (FDI) is the dependent variable.

• Results and discussion

After conducting the unit root test for the research variables and through table (2), it becomes clear that the variable FDI stabilized at the level as well as the variable PO, while the variable GDP stabilized at the first difference with the presence of a cutter or cutter and a general trend, the researchers determine the optimal slowdown period as follows:

Table 2. Dickey-Fuller augmented unit root test

Source: Prepared by the researchers based on the program analysis results (EViews 9)

Figure 1. Determining the slowdown period

Source: Prepared by the researchers based on the program analysis results (EViews 9)

From Figure (1), it is clear to us that the optimal lag period for the model is Lag 4. In addition, table (3) shows the results of the autoregressive model for slowing the distributor that indicate the explanatory power R-squared was (88R2=0.) as well as, that the independent variable in the estimated model explains 88% of the changes in the dependent variable. The value of Adjusted R-squared was (0.72), and the calculated F-statistic value was (5.45), which is significant at the 5% level, that is, the model is significant. The null hypothesis is rejected and accepted the alternative hypothesis.

Table 3. The ARDL model for joint integration result

Issued: Prepared by researchers based on the program analysis results (EViews 9)

4.1. Bounds Test

Table 4. Bounds Test

Source: Prepared by researchers based on the program analysis results (EViews 9)

4.2. Testing the problem of autocorrelation and heterogeneity of variance

Table (4) shows the results of the boundary test, that indicates the calculated value of (F-statistics) was (15.67396) which is greater than the minimum and maximum values ​​at a significance level of 5%. Accordingly, the impact of GDP and total population on net inflows has an impact in the long run.

Table 5. Serial correlation and heterogeneity of variance test

Source: Prepared by the researchers based on the analysis results of the program (EViews 9)

From table (5) and after conducting the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test, it is clear that the model is sound and free from the problem of autocorrelation, as the Chi-Square value is not significant at the 5% level. It is also clear that the model is free from the problem of heterogeneity of variance, according to the Heteroskedasticity Test: ARCH, which was also not significant at the 5% level. Figure (2) shows the model free from the problem of autocorrelation.

Figure2. Diagnostic Tests

Source: Prepared by researchers based on the analysis results of the program (EViews 9)

From figure (2), it is clear that the Probability reached 0.72, which is greater than 5%, meaning that it is not significant. This indicates that there is no problem, and the null hypothesis is accepted and the alternative hypothesis is rejected.

Figure 3. Reliability test

Source: Prepared by the researchers based on the analysis results of the program (EViews 9)

From figure no. (3), it is clear that the model is stable, as the graph falls within the upper and lower limits.

4.3. Estimating the Error Correction Model ECM

Table 6. Error Correction Model

Source: Prepared by the researchers based on the analysis results of the program (EViews 9)

Table (6) shows the short-term error correction model. The error correction parameter is negative and significant at the 5% level. It is clear that the error correction parameter is negative and significant at 5%, which is greater than the number 1 in absolute value. This means that the speed of adjustment is great to correct imbalances in the short term to reach long-term equilibrium.

• Conclusions
• International capital flows, whether out or in, in different countries are affected by economic factors and economic policies adopted in those countries, and different statistical methods are used to measure the degree of response of international capital to cross-border movement.
• International flows are subject to stable changes as a result of their association with international economic variables, such as interest rate changes and exchange rate fluctuations.
• The three variables, population growth, GDP growth and investment, are considered economic and social variables that are an important indicator for determining many economic facts and monitoring the achievement of economic growth in the country.
• It was shown through the statistical results and analysis in the State of Algeria that population growth and GDP growth are strongly linked to international capital flows and affect them strongly despite the direct relationship between them, but population growth had a somewhat inadequate relationship.
• It was shown through the standard results and analysis in the State of Algeria that there is a significant effect between the research variables and international flows in Algeria, which means that the variables are an important determinant of international flows, especially GDP growth.
• Recommendations
• Developing countries should deal with international capital flows as a reality that must be interacted with economically, and this interaction should be based on current and future mutual benefit.
• In order to achieve balanced regional development and create new centers of attraction for labor, efforts should be made to provide an appropriate economic environment for investment and use incentives and tax benefits to direct investment companies towards less developed regions that need more investments to achieve economic development.
• Pay attention to the method through which flows are attracted and brought in, especially after the great openness by countries to external flows.
• Algeria should realize the importance of foreign capital and its benefit to the country in which it resides, as achieving economic growth and improving the standard of living of individuals is no longer an easy matter for the government in the stage of economic transformation, and since Algeria is a rentier country, maximum benefit must be made from oil revenues and directed in the most efficient way in the economy.

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