The Russian presence in Syria Reasons and consequences

Prepared by the researcher  :   Shaher Ismael AlShaher – Associate Professor – College of International Studies – Sun Yat Sen University / China

Democratic Arab Center

Journal of Political Science and Law : Thirty Issue – December 2021

A Periodical International Journal published by the “Democratic Arab Center” Germany – Berlin

Abstract

Syria has always played the role of Russia’s ally in the Middle East region, and its foothold in the Warm Water, which has been a Russian goal since the time of the Tsars in approaching the waterways that connect the Black Sea with the Mediterranean, not to mentionthe “Orthodox” religious importancewhich Syria represents for Russia.

Russia, through its presence in Syria, was able to regain its global role. Moreover,it was able to find a market to sell its new weapons. By controlling the Syrian file, it managed to compromise on multiple international files. (The Liberation of Crimea – Ukraine issue. Nagorny Karabakh. Confronting NATO in Eastern Europe). Furthermore, two Russian air and naval bases were also established in Hamim and Tartous, and agreements were carried out to invest in oil, gas and phosphates

introduction:

Syrian-Russian relations date back to the forties of the last century, and relations between the two countries have witnessed ups and downs according to the change of regimes and leaders between the two countries, but the only constant thing in this relationship is that it has remained despite all the strategic circumstances of both countries. The Soviet Union was one of the first countries to recognize the independence of Syria and to establish diplomatic relations with it in 1944.)Al Shaher, 2009)

The Soviet Union also played a played a big role in inviting Syria to the founding conference of San Francisco for the United Nations, and Syria was one of the founding countries of the United Nations in 1945. In 1946, the Soviet Union was the first to support the Evacuation of French occupation from Syria.

However, the Soviet Union supported the establishment of The Zionist entity on the Arab land of Palestine in 1948, due to its desire to get rid of the Jews who would immigrate to Palestine. This led to a decline in the Syrian-Soviet relations at the time.

After President Shukri al-Quwatli took power in Syria and overthrew Hosni al-Zaim in 1954, economic relations developed between the two countries and the level of diplomatic representation between the two countries was raised to the level of the exchange of ambassadors. The Soviet Union had a dismissive attitude towardsthe tripartite aggression against Egypt in 1956. In December 1957, Syria and the Soviet Union signed an economic cooperation agreement, which included providing aid to Syria worth 300 million dollars, the year in which Syria was experiencing a major crisis with Turkey. When the unity between Syria and Egypt was established in 1958, the SovietUnion saw in it a threat to communist expansion in Syria.

When the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party came to power in Syria on March 8, 1963, relations between the two countries witnessed a great improvement, and in December 1966, it was agreed with the Soviet Union to start implementing construction work on the Euphrates Dam, the largest vital project in the history of Syria since its liberation until today.

With the establishment of the Corrective Movement on November 16, 1970 and President Hafez al-Assad’s assumption of the power in Syria, the relationship between the two countries became strategic, as Moscow provided Syria with broad political, economic and military support in exchange for allowing it to build a military base in the city of Tartus on the Mediterranean to achieve the Russian dream of reaching the Warm water.

The Soviet Union gave great support to Syria in the October Liberation War in 1973. In 1980 Presidents Hafez Al-Assad and Brezhnev signed a twenty-year treaty of friendship and cooperation between the two countries.

Relations developed between the two countries in various political, military and cultural fields, and the situation continued until 1989 when the Soviet Union collapsed, which greatly affected Syria, as Syria lost the strategic ally that had always played a major role in modifying the international balance in the region.

However, President Hafez al-Assad’s ability and cleverness, awareness and deep understanding of international changes enabled him to overcome the crisis of international imbalance, so he entered the international coalition against Iraq in 1990, and accepted the American invitation to hold the Madrid Peace Conference in 1991 after he lost the Soviet ally and after the destruction of the Iraqi army, which was considered a main factor in the equation of balance with the Zionist enemy.) Al Shaher, 2018)

Syria has realized that the relationship with the Russian Federation will be governed by interests rather than ideological considerations and slogans, and that the primary goal of Russian foreign policy in the next stage will be to serve economic goals and interests first. (Ali, 2007).

When President Bashar al-Assad came to power in 2000, relations improved and developed between the two countries, as 43 agreements and memoranda of understanding were signed between the two countries, covering all economic, military, and cultural aspects … etc. The two sides reached a rescheduling of the Syrian debts to Russia, and a large percentage of it was written off in 2005. In 2008, it was agreed to establish a permanent naval base and launch a gas project in Al-Farklis in Homs Governorate. Moreover, Russian President Medvedev visited Syria in 2010, where relations between the two countries have greatly improved, especially on the military and security levels.)Al Shaher, 2020)

When the events of the so-called “Arab Spring” began in Syria in 2011, Russia stood by the legitimate government in Syria in its war against terrorism, and this was embodied by the Russian supportive posture of Syria in the UN Security Council, where it used Veto 16 times. Then it was culminated in direct military presence in Syria in 2015, when Russia had a military base (Hmeimim) in the city of Latakia, which is the second military base after Tartous.

The Russian Federation has pursued a special policy in Syria, and of course it is driven by Russian national interests, the most important of which is staying in the Mediterranean basin, confronting the American missile shield project, and balancing the American bases in Turkey with bases in Syria, in addition to thwarting Western attempts that aim to break its control in the energy sector through bringing energy by importing Qatari energy or coming from Kurdistan or Central Asia.In the same context, the Russian Federation viewed with great concern the rise of the Islamic trend and its access to power in a number of Arab countries, and it expressed its fear of the effect of that change on the Russian internal situation, especially in the Islamic republics of the Caucasus and Chechnya, which poses a direct threat to its national security. Therefore, Moscow supplied Syria with strategic S-300 missiles, which would enable Syria to protect its borders with occupied Palestine, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon from the sea.

The goals of the Russian presence in Syria in 2015:

The position adopted by Russia towards the Syrian crisis since 2011 was a prominent turning point in the history of Russian policy towards the “Middle East” region, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and even led to consider this step as the beginning of a strong return to the Russian role in the international system. (Kamel, 2013), Therefore, the Russian Federation provided all forms of political support to the Syrian government during its crisis that erupted in 2011, as theRussian Federation, since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, has refused any military intervention to change the Syrian political structure, considering that changing the political systems is an internal matter that is decided by the people alone. (Abdawi, 2016).

As a result of the increase in foreign interference (regional and international), and the spread of weapons and chaos in some Syrian areas that have been moved to the control of armed terrorist organizations, things have become conducive to the birth of the bloodiest terrorist organization in the Syrian arena which is the so called “Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant” (ISIS), (Malki,2015) whose bloody practices extended to the depth of European societies. Thisprompted the various international parties to acknowledge the activity of terrorism on the Syrian territories and pushed for the formation of the so called “International Anti-Terrorism Coalition” led by the United States of America on April 29, 2014, with the participation of France, Britain, Canada, Poland, Australia, Turkey, Italy, Germany and Denmark, in addition to some Arab countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Bahrain and Jordan. This military presence in the Syrian atmosphere was not supported by the approval of the Syrian government or the United Nations, which led the legitimate Syrian government to request the participation of Russian forces in operations against terrorism, which actually began to existin Syria on September 30, 2015, the date on which the Russian forces began their military operations in Syria.)Seif, 2016)

Although the main objective of this military presence is to confront the threat of (ISIS) rather than waiting for its attacks to be launched inside Russia, on the other hand it has many reasons,including what is related to Russia’s interests and its regional and international relations.

The entry of the Russians into Syria aimed at:

1–Appearing as a new superpower and the desire to restore the Soviet legacy.)Todd, 2002).

2–Getting access to warm waters in the Mediterranean, because of its great importance in international trade and politics.)Dugin, 2004).

3- Direct presence in the “Middle East”, because of the importance of this region, given that it is located in the heart of the three continents of Asia, Africa and Europe.

4- Syria is the vital defense line (for Russia, and thus the first collision zone with the United States and one of the fronts of confrontation with Europe).

5 – Transferring the battle to fight terrorism and eliminate it from the Russian interior to Syria, (where President Putin told the leaders of the former Soviet Union that there were 15,000 terrorists from their countries in Syria, and if we did not fight them there, they would come to us and we fight them in our land).

6 – The Russian desire to obtain contracts for the reconstruction of Syria, which represents a great opportunity for Russian companies.

In July 2020, the Russian President (Vladimir Putin) issued a decree appointing his own envoy to Syria, whereby the current ambassador to Syria (Alexander Yefimov) was promoted to become his personal envoy.

The Syrian objectives of requesting Russian presence:

Syria suffered greatly from the armed groups supported by foreign countries to a large extent, which were able to control a large area of ​​the Syrian geography, and became close to the capital Damascus, which made the Syrian government ask Russia for military presence, as Syria achieved many gains, the most important of which are:

1- Russian support in the Security Council: Russia used its veto / 16 / times, the first of which was on October 4, 2011, which thwarted many projects targeting Syria.

2 – Russian support on the political track (the Geneva and Sochi conferences) and direct dialogue between Lavrov and John Kerry.

3 – Direct military support and fighting alongside the Syrian army.

4- Economic support, which was represented by Russian deposits and loans to Syria, and signing a large number of economic agreements.

5- Establishing the Astana platform and direct coordination with Iran and Turkey to search for a solution to the crisis.

6- The Russian role in Syria encouraged China to get more involved in the Syrian crisis.

The impact of the Russian role in the war on Syria:

After the exit of Iraq from the Eurasian equation “after the American occupation in 2003, and the exit of Libya after the NATO military intervention during the Libyan crisis in 2011, the Russian Federation saw that there was nothing left in front of it but Syria as a country not affiliated with Western hegemony in the region, and it considered that targeting Syria is a part of an international campaign to blockade the Russian economy, and considered that targeting Syria was not far from the struggle for gas in the world and in the “Middle East”. The Russian presence in Syria achieved several gains, also caused many results:

First: The decline of the American role:

There are several indications of the rise of the Russian role and other international powers, and the decline of the American role, which were demonstrated by the crisis in Syria, These indications arerepresented by the following:

1. Russia’s opposition to the issuance of any Security Council resolution condemning Syria and accusing it of fabricated practices by the armed opposition, and Russia and China were the main obstacles in this direction, when they demanded the necessity of dialogue and a political solution instead of any military solutions of which the consequences will be disastrous for everyone. At a time when the United States of America seemed hesitant to take a decision despite its threatening to wage war on Syria,Russia seemed active, strong and determined to restore the role of the Soviet Union as an active and influential pole in the international arena, so it was able to restore the Syrian state as a cooperating member with the United Nations in chemical disarmament. This is after its formal affiliation to the Chemical Weapons Convention. This decision constituted the starting point for the agreement between Russia and the United States of America on the joint steps they will take to deal with chemical weapons in Syria. On the other hand, this agreement represented a safe haven for American diplomacy, and one of the important links in the new Russian diplomacy in the Middle East. This was translated through the Geneva Chemical Agreement that was concluded between the Russian Foreign Minister “Lavrov” and the American “John Kerry.”
2. The use of veto by Russia and China in the Security Council several times against the issuance of decisions condemning the Syrian state, in a precedent that is the first of its kind in the history of international relations, defying through this the American continuous pursuit to make such a decision, and with the support of a large group of countries in the world opposed to American policies, such as The BRICS countries, and the ALBA countries.
3. Russia continues to provide military and economic aid to Syria despite the international embargo imposed by the United States of America and its allies against Syria. This was mainly represented by Russia’s continuing to send batches of sophisticated weapons to Syria committed to the agreements signed with Syria in this regard, and to provide economic and relief aid to Syria which thwarted all decisions and plans to drain the Syrian state.
4. Russian investment in the field of combating international terrorism to reveal the American role in supporting international terrorism. The United States of America created, trained, financed and armed terrorist organizations in many countries of the world. Russia, which is genuinely threatened by terrorism, and suffered from it previously, was able to invest diplomatically in the fight against terrorism and expose the American role that supports terrorism in the world, which brought back the international alignment with Syria and Russia in international forums, and disrupted many of the American intervention decisions in Syria.(Diaa El-Din, 2014).

Russia has also worked to activate the use of international law against the American presence in Syria, considering America is an occupied country that violates international law and the sovereignty of the Syrian state.(Mau, 2017), Direct coordination took place between the Russian and American armies in the field and on the roads, especially in the Syrian Jazira region, where there was a direct collision more than once between the two armies there. Moreover, there was direct coordination between the planes of the international coalition led by the United States and Russian aircraft in the Syrian airspace, and strengthened diplomatic dialogue between the Russian Foreign Ministry and the US State Department to search for a solution to the Syrian crisis.Despite Russia’s assistance to the Syrian army in combating the American, French and British missiles in April 2018, when they accused the Syrian government of using chemical weapons in Ghouta where Russia took over the logistical coordination to destroy the Syrian chemical weapons. Meanwhile, Russia is still turning a blind eye to the theft of Syrian oil, gas and wheat by the United States of America.

Second: Russian-Turkish relations

1- Turkey is very important to Russia more than Syria in the strategic field in terms of:

(The volume of trade exchange between the two countries – the large tourism relations – cooperation in the field of establishing Turkish nuclear plants – the southern torrent pipeline project to transport Russian gas through the Black Sea to Turkey and then to Europe), Russia has also supplied Turkey with S-400 missile systems, and the penetration of NATO .

2 – Approval of Turkey’s representation of terrorists on the Astana platform.

3 – Guaranteeing Turkey’s interests inside the Syrian state, especially in the security belts drawn by Turkey itself (30 km) inside Syria and for a distance that includes most of the borders with it).

4- Understanding the degree of cooperation and not putting pressure on the Turkish side on all occasions and the inability to operate the joint patrols on the M4 Lattakia road despite the Turkish pledge to ensure the implementation of this in the Thursday meeting (3/5/2020), in Moscow.

5- The Russian side’s knowledge of converting the Turkish observation points into military bases and the introduction of more than 15,000 soldiers with all their armored weapons (tanks, artillery, and logistical services), without discussing this.

6 – Russia’s knowledge of the aggressive actions carried out by the Turks in Syria, in terms of Turkishization, theft of resources and antiquities, and demographic change. Indeed, the terrorists identified with Turkey struck the Russian forces in Ain Issa and Ras al-Ain and were forced to withdraw.

7- The Russian plane was shot down on November 24, 2015, killing its pilot, and trying to capture the other pilot.

8- Turkish intervention in Crimea and the Nagorno Karabakh region in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Third – With the Zionist (Israeli) side:

1- There is permanent coordination between the Russian and Israeli sides, whereby Russia is informed of the Israeli military operations and air strikes on the Syrian sites.

2- The Russian forces did not use the S-300 missiles against the Israeli aircraft.

3- Not supplying Syria with 400 S, knowing that it supplied Turkey with it.

4- Intelligence cooperation in Syria, especially with regard to the dead or prisoners of the Israeli side, (the Yarmouk camp incident).

Fourth: Russia and the relationship with the Iranian side:

There is a clear contradiction between the goals of the Iranian presence in Syria, and the goals of the Russian presence in Syria. As Iran is part of the axis of resistance whose goal is to eliminate “Israel”, since it has an integrated strategy with Iraq and Syria, and Iran is trying, according to the strategic partnership with Syria, to establish balanced relations in which the interests of the two countries are within a regional framework entitled development and mutual benefit. There is also a real competition to take advantage of the Syrian geography between Russia and Iran, and Iran’s attempt to establish its presence in the Mediterranean alongside the Russian bases.

Fifth: Russia’s relationship with the Syrian side:

Russian policy worked in two directions:

The first is to support the legitimate Syrian government, economically and politically, in the United Nations and the Human Rights Council.

The second: It is represented in the military support of the Syrian Arab Army in its war against the armed organizations, hindering the Western attempts to topple the Syrian state by force, as happened in Libya. Perhaps the most important characteristic of Russian-Syrian relations is:

• The Russian military presence on Syrian territory.

2 – Not contributing to preventing the deterioration of the living situation in Syria after the implementation of the Caesar Act, and the emergence of many bottlenecks in the area of ​​securing wheat and fuel.

3- The nature of the long-term contracts held with the Russian side in the fields of oil, gas and phosphates.

4- The setback in the framework of reconciliations sponsored by Russia, especially in southern Syria (in Daraa and Quneitra…).

5 – The environmental impacts of the use of new weapons in the Syrian geography.

6- Citizens’ dissatisfaction with the Russian role in extinguishing the fires that hit the Syrian coastal areas close to the Russian bases, while it helped in similar incidents in neighboring regions such as Turkey and Israel.

7 – The Russian-Syrian partnership did not rise to the level of the desired alliance, neither economically, scientifically or technically…

Russian investments in Syria

One of the most prominent results of the Russian presence in Syria in 2015 was the acquisition of a large number of economic privileges in it, and this was reflected through the contracts and agreements signed between the two countries, and the most important of these agreements are:

1- An agreement for exploration of oil in the offshore block opposite Tartous Governorate, for a period of 32 years, which was signed on March 16, 2021, between the Ministry of Oil and Mineral Resources and Russia’s Capital Company. The contract period is divided into two phases; the first phase is the exploration phase and its duration is 48 months. It begins with the signing of the contract, and it can be extended up to 36 additional months, while the second phase is the development phase and it lasts for 25 years, which can be extended for additional five years.

2- An agreement to establish a logistics center for technical equipment of the Russian fleet in Tartous for a period of 49 years, signed in 2017.

3- Leasing the port of Tartous for a period of 49 years, the agreement was signed in April 2019.

4- Investment of the companies (General Fertilizers Company).

5- In March 2018, the Syrian People’s Assembly approved the contract signed by the Russian company with the (General Organization for Geology and Mineral Resources) to invest and extract phosphate ores from the Sharqiya mines in Palmyra for a period of 50 years, with an estimated production volume of 2.2 million tons annually. Syria’s share of it is 30%.

6- Russian companies have also signed other contracts, including: the (Amrit) contract that allows the company (Spoze) to explore for oil and gas for a period of 25 years in the south of Tartus, reaching the city of Banias, with a beach depth estimated at 70 km, with an area estimated at 2,200 km2.

7- The company (Spuz) signed a contract to explore for oil and gas in the Qara field in Homs countryside, which is one of the areas richest in natural gas.

8- Rehabilitation of the Al-Manara tourist village in Tartous Governorate, at a cost of about $ 90 million.

9- The number of Russian companies that entered Syria at the beginning of 2018 reached 80 investment companies.

10- In June 2019, a Russian company submitted an offer to the Ministry of Industry for participation, including an investment in the batteries company in Aleppo, affiliated to the General Organization for Engineering Industries.

11- In the city of Deir Ezzor, Russian companies took the (Al-Taim) field and the (Al-Ward) oil field in the eastern countryside.

12 – In May 2019, the Russian agency (Sputnik) revealed that there were talks to invest and expand Damascus International Airport.

13- In September 2020, a new agreement was signed between Syria and Russia, which included more than 40 projects in the field of reconstructingthe energy sector, hydroelectric power stations and extracting oil from the sea.

14 – In September 2020, Russia announced the signing of a nuclear cooperation agreement with Syria, on the sidelines of the General Conference on Atomic Energy in (Vienna).

15- At the end of 2020, the Russian Prime Minister (Mikhail Mishustin) issued an order to open a commercial representation in Syria.

16- At the end of 2020, the Russian company (StroyIksirVinik) was established, with a capital of 50 million Syrian pounds.

17- At the end of 2020, the Syrian and Russian sides agreed to create a production line for the manufacture of jeans with high capacity in Lattakia.

18- At the end of 2020, Russia signed with the (Tartous Chamber of Commerce and Industry) a set of contracts and agreements with a number of investors, to be implemented immediately, and the most notable ones were: exporting about 700 containers of vegetables, fruits and citrus fruits from Syrian production to markets in southern Russia, and the establishment of a facility for sorting and packing vegetables and fruits of various kinds, according to international standards, with Syrian-Russian investment, and starting next year with establishing exhibitions of Syrian agricultural products in the markets of southern Russia to contribute to the marketing of these products.

19- At the end of December 2020, Russia announced that it had begun sending the expert delegations to oversee the reconstruction process in Syria. The Russian delegation, which arrived in Damascus, included employees from the Ministry of Construction, Housing and Utilities in the Russian Federation, and visited residential suburbs in the Dimas area, while the Russian Federal News Agency published pictures that it said thatthey were (for the Russian delegation’s supervision of the housing reconstruction process in Syria).

The future of the Russian role in Syria:

There are several possibilities for the future of the Russian role in Syria, which we summarize as the following:

1. That this role should be developed according to the appropriate criteria (for Arabs), namely:
2. Criterion for solving the problem of terrorism and eliminating terrorists.
3. To curb the Turkish role by implementing the provisions of previous agreements according to a specific timetable.
4. Work more seriously to get the Americans out of Syria.
5. Work more seriously to eliminate the phenomenon of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
6. Working more seriously with the Israeli side, on the basis that Syria is an ally.
7. Work to establish joint development projects in the fields of energy, phosphates, food industries, and tourism projects.
8. Work with the Chinese side to complete the Silk Road projects and within the Iranian-Chinese strategy.
9. That this role continues as it is now, and this will increase the dissatisfaction of some groups of the Syrian people

Conclusion:

The Russian position in supporting Syria has not changed since the outbreak of the crisis in Syria. The Russian support was not limited to the political side, but exceeded that to providing Syria with the latest weapons and offering martyrs in defense of the unity of the Syrian territories. Today, Syria is the only ally of Russia in the “Middle East” region to confront American hegemony. The conflict over Syria threatens the existence of the state, which Moscow will not accept with a historical ally of it. The control of radical political Islam on Syria will change the geopolitical map in the region, and this directly threatens Russian interests, for Syrian-Russian relations are strategic and will develop.

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