Prepared by the researche : Yesmin Elhemaly – Researcher specialized in African and political
DAC Democratic Arabic Center GmbH
Africa is witnessing a pivotal moment in its environmental history, where development pathways intersect with escalating pressures resulting from climate change, which has ceased to be merely a scientific projection and has become a daily reality affecting resources, people, and economic systems. With the increasing frequency of droughts, floods, and rising temperatures, the fragile productive structures in many African countries are subjected to severe tests that make confronting these transformations a strategic necessity that goes beyond traditional measures. These changes also reveal deep imbalances in the distribution of natural resources and highlight institutional weaknesses in adaptation capacity, prompting the search for innovative solutions that include strengthening early-warning systems, restructuring water-management policies, and developing more efficient agricultural practices. Amid these complex dynamics, climate change is becoming an influential force reshaping the continent’s priorities and redefining the equations of food, economic, and social security, making an understanding of its future implications essential for crafting sustainable development strategies.
The future of climate change across the African continent will be determined by the extent to which African states can respond to a series of accelerating environmental transformations that have imposed themselves as a key force reshaping economic and social patterns. Although the continent has historically contributed only minimally to global emissions, it is among the regions most exposed to the effects of global warming, making adaptation a strategic necessity rather than a political option. In the coming years, extreme climatic events such as prolonged droughts and sudden floods are expected to intensify, directly affecting water availability, soil quality, and the stability of rural communities that rely on agriculture as their primary source of livelihood. The expansion of these crises may widen development gaps between African nations and increase pressure on already fragile infrastructure, underscoring the need to anticipate innovative solutions that move beyond traditional measures.
Climate change is expected to play a central role in redistributing natural resources across Africa, particularly water and fertile land. The Sahel and the Horn of Africa will face a continued decline in rainfall levels, while other regions may witness increases in precipitation that could cause large-scale disruptions. This uneven distribution of climatic patterns will generate major challenges for food security, as crop productivity declines in many areas while other regions struggle with soils degraded by recurring floods. Under these shifting conditions, water resource management will become one of the most critical arenas for both conflict and cooperation. States will need to strengthen water-storage infrastructure and develop solutions based on desalination and recycling technologies. Water diplomacy will likely grow in importance, especially in shared river basins such as the Nile, Niger, and Senegal.
Africa’s economic structure is poised to undergo profound transformations in the near future as a result of climate impacts, with agricultural, pastoral, and industrial value chains all increasingly affected. As agricultural output declines in certain regions, rural unemployment and internal migration toward cities are expected to surge, placing additional pressure on public services, housing, and job markets. At the same time, new economic opportunities may emerge in renewable energy sectors such as solar and wind power, in which the continent possesses immense potential. If Africa succeeds in harnessing this shift, it may be able to build a low-carbon economy capable of generating sustainable employment and achieving a degree of energy independence. However, realizing this vision will require greater international financing, advanced technology transfer, and equitable economic partnerships that ensure genuine development rather than mere resource extraction.
Climate-driven migration will be one of the most prominent phenomena shaping the continent’s future, with projections indicating that millions may be forced to relocate from areas rendered uninhabitable due to water scarcity or the loss of arable land. This type of migration will create humanitarian and security challenges that demand comprehensive policies for urban planning and infrastructure expansion to accommodate new arrivals. At the same time, mounting pressure on cities may generate additional social issues, including rising unemployment and competition over limited resources. Cross-border relations in Africa will also be influenced by migrant flows, necessitating regional cooperation frameworks to support communities at risk. Without effective responses, climate migration could evolve into a source of escalating regional conflict, requiring its integration into national security planning and sustainable development strategies.
Africa’s health sector will face growing difficulties due to environmental degradation, as rising temperatures and increased humidity expand the spread of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. Heatwaves will raise mortality rates among the most vulnerable groups, including the elderly and children, while water scarcity and deterioration in water quality will accelerate outbreaks of water-borne illnesses. These health challenges will place immense pressure on medical systems that are already weak in many African countries, necessitating strengthened healthcare networks, increased investment in medical infrastructure, and the adoption of early-warning systems for climate-linked epidemics. Countries will also need broad public awareness campaigns to promote preventive health behaviors and to integrate public health considerations into climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Technology is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping Africa’s ability to confront climate change, especially in weather forecasting, natural-resource management, and smart agriculture. Remote-sensing technologies and data science will provide enhanced capabilities for monitoring environmental changes and predicting crises before they occur, enabling faster and more accurate response planning. In the agricultural sector, drip irrigation, drought-resistant seeds, and precision-farming techniques will help boost productivity and reduce dependence on climatic conditions. Technology can also support green-economy initiatives by improving energy-use efficiency and enabling the development of environmentally friendly industries. However, the adoption of such technologies remains contingent on the availability of financing, knowledge transfer, and local capacity-building—factors that require international cooperation and domestic political commitment.
the future of climate change in Africa hinges on a delicate balance between risks and opportunities, and on the continent’s capacity to adapt relative to the level of international support it receives. Africa stands at a crossroads: it may either drift toward greater fragility if its policies remain fragmented and underfunded, or it may evolve into a global model of climate resilience if it succeeds in investing in clean energy, strengthening regional cooperation, and relying on scientific and technological solutions. This future will not materialize automatically; it requires a long-term vision aimed at protecting natural resources, developing productive sectors, and empowering local communities. If these elements converge, the continent may be able to transform the climate crisis into a catalyst for comprehensive development and lay the foundation for an economically and environmentally sustainable path for generations to come.
The Implications of Climate Change on Terrorism in the African Continent
The African continent is witnessing a noticeable increase in the connection between climate change and the expansion of terrorist groups, as environmental pressures exacerbate livelihood vulnerabilities and create security vacuums that extremist organizations exploit to strengthen their influence. Recurrent droughts and shrinking natural resources—particularly water and grazing lands—intensify competition among local communities and transform traditional disputes into more violent conflicts. With weak local governments and their inability to provide sustainable solutions, armed groups position themselves as alternative actors offering protection or resources, thereby expanding their social base. Rising unemployment caused by the decline in agricultural production also creates fertile ground for recruitment, as terrorist groups succeed in attracting young people by offering sources of income or integrating them into informal economies built on violence and extortion. In this way, climate crises shift from being mere environmental phenomena to becoming direct drivers of extremism and the persistence of armed groups.
Across many regions of Africa, climate change has led to severe disruptions in patterns of internal and external migration, contributing to the emergence of socially and politically unstable environments that terrorist groups exploit to reposition themselves. Forced displacement caused by the loss of livelihoods—particularly in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa—pushes thousands of families toward overcrowded cities or border regions with weak governmental control. These population movements undermine states’ capacity to manage security and increase the opportunities for civilians to come into contact with armed groups and become part of new recruitment networks. Competition over resources between native residents and newcomers produces tensions that often escalate into violence, which extremist organizations exploit by presenting themselves as mediators or protectors of rights. In the absence of effective policies to regulate climate-induced migration and promote development in affected areas, displacement becomes one of the most significant factors fueling the spread of terrorism.
Among the most prominent climate-related consequences influencing terrorism in Africa is the expansion of illegal economies that armed groups rely on to finance their activities. As agriculture deteriorates and production levels fall, smuggling activities across borders—whether of people, weapons, or goods—intensify. Terrorist organizations exploit these circumstances to develop complex financial networks that secure stable sources of income, benefiting from weak governmental oversight and expansive, hard-to-control borders. Water scarcity and the degradation of grazing lands also fuel conflicts between herders and farmers—conflicts in which economic and political interests overlap—creating gateways for extremist groups to infiltrate and manipulate local dynamics for their own benefit. Thus, climate change reshapes the economic conflict landscape and creates structural conditions that empower extremist groups to strengthen their financing channels and expand their regional influence.
Climate change also contributes to weakening state legitimacy in the eyes of citizens, which constitutes fertile ground for the rise of terrorism. Government failures to provide water, food, and essential services during environmental crises are often interpreted by populations as structural shortcomings that deepen distrust in public institutions. This erosion of public confidence opens the door for terrorist groups to introduce alternative narratives promising social justice, security, or improved economic conditions through their own mechanisms. As climate shocks increase in frequency, governments become more preoccupied with managing immediate crises, reducing their ability to monitor marginalized regions and creating security vacuums that armed groups seize to reposition themselves. Therefore, climate change is not merely an environmental threat; it contributes to the erosion of state effectiveness—one of the most dangerous drivers of extremism.
In conclusion, the impact of climate change on terrorism in Africa manifests through a complex interplay of environmental, social, economic, and security factors. Climate transformations fuel instability hotspots and reshape the continent’s risk landscape. Regions most exposed to drought and desertification gradually turn into open arenas for conflict, while climate-induced migration imposes additional pressures on cities and borders and opens new pathways for recruitment and financing. Resource pressures erode social cohesion and heighten communal violence, providing fertile ground for extremist organizations to expand. In the absence of integrated strategies that connect climate security with sustainable development and resource management, terrorism in Africa will remain capable of adapting to environmental crises and exploiting them to consolidate its presence. Addressing this phenomenon therefore requires a holistic approach that combines climate-impact mitigation, strengthened governance, and proactive security and development policies designed to anticipate risks before they intensify.
