Prepared by the researche : Nourhan Mohammed Youssef – Political researcher
DAC Democratic Arabic Center GmbH
In recent years, the Sahel region has witnessed escalating tensions and a state of instability that threatens the future of the entire area. This situation raises serious questions about what lies ahead amid complex security and political challenges. In Chad, the country continues to suffer from internal turmoil since the assassination of President Idriss Déby in 2021. The transitional period that followed has been marked by institutional fragility, public unrest, and a growing opposition, all amid rising armed attacks. Mali has become a classic example of a state struggling to emerge from crisis, with ongoing internal conflict, foreign interventions, successive military coups, and the spread of terrorist groups in the north and center of the country. In Niger, the 2023 military coup further complicated the scene in a country once considered one of the West’s last reliable allies in fighting terrorism—opening the door to regional and international tensions. Similarly, Burkina Faso’s recurring coups and security vacuum have enabled armed groups to expand and terrorize local communities. Collectively, these developments place the Sahel’s future at a critical crossroads, demanding urgent re-evaluation of support mechanisms and stabilization strategies before it is too late.
According to the 2025 Global Terrorism Index, Sahel countries dominate the list of the world’s most terrorism-affected states. Six African nations from the region ranked among the top ten globally. Burkina Faso topped the list with over 1,500 deaths from terrorist attacks in 2024 alone, averaging 14 deaths per attack—double the 2023 average. Mali ranked fourth globally, followed by Niger in fifth place, both registering sharp increases in fatalities. Nigeria, Somalia, and Cameroon also made the list. Combined, these six countries accounted for 51% of global terrorism-related deaths in 2024. This ranking reflects the severity of security conditions in the region and serves as a stark warning about the expanding reach of violence and insecurity, placing the Sahel at the epicenter of global terrorist activity.
The surge in terrorist activity in the Sahel cannot be separated from the region’s deep-rooted structural crises. Extreme poverty, lack of development, ethnic divisions, and repeated political coups have created fertile ground for armed group expansion. The Sahel experienced the highest global increase in terrorism-related deaths in 2024, recording 3,885 fatalities, even as overall deaths declined across sub-Saharan Africa. Groups like Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State exploit institutional fragility and security gaps, especially in rural areas. Their operations are financed by illicit economic activities, such as drug trafficking and kidnapping for ransom. These groups often present themselves as alternative authorities, collecting taxes and providing “protection,” further undermining already weak state institutions.
The Sahel is one of the world’s most active regions for armed groups with diverse ideologies, affiliations, and funding sources. Prominent among these are the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (affiliated with al-Qaeda), and Boko Haram. Formed in 2017 through the merger of several local factions, JNIM is now a dominant al-Qaeda affiliate with extensive influence in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The Islamic State operates through two main branches—one in the Sahel and the other in West Africa—with a strong presence in Mali and Niger. In Nigeria, Boko Haram continues its long-standing insurgency, despite internal splits. These groups use a variety of violent tactics—bombings, armed raids, and kidnappings—to expand their influence and exploit local grievances and ethnic conflicts to establish footholds.
Mali, in particular, is experiencing growing internal and external tensions under the military leadership of Assimi Goïta. His regime recently dissolved all political parties and suspended political activity under the pretext of preserving public order. These actions triggered widespread protests from the opposition and civil society, calling for a return to civilian rule and democratic governance. Internally, the government is struggling to control northern and central regions where it faces resistance from both jihadist and Tuareg separatist groups. Despite receiving support from Russia and Turkey, the government has failed to establish full territorial control. Externally, Mali’s relations with neighboring Algeria deteriorated significantly after Bamako accused Algiers of downing a Malian drone, prompting both countries to recall their ambassadors and close their airspaces. These developments highlight the fragility of Mali’s political and security situation, pushing the country further into regional isolation and raising fears of broader instability across the Sahel.
Niger is also grappling with mounting security and political tensions, making it one of the most unstable countries in the Sahel in 2024. The number of terrorist attacks surged to 101, with 930 fatalities—499 of them soldiers—revealing the immense pressure on national forces. The July 2023 coup exacerbated internal instability, creating a power vacuum exploited by jihadist groups like JNIM and ISIS, especially after the withdrawal of U.S. forces in August 2024. Threats are not only external; internal military unrest also emerged, most notably at the Termit base, where mutinying soldiers detained senior officers to protest poor conditions and delayed pay. These incidents underscore serious cracks within the armed forces, which are overstretched in the vast, desert terrain, and increasingly vulnerable due to the absence of Western logistical support. Niger’s path to stability appears increasingly uncertain as it juggles both internal collapse and external threats.
As for Burkina Faso, it has become the deadliest hotspot for terrorism worldwide. In 2024, the country recorded 1,532 deaths from terrorist violence—accounting for one-fifth of all such deaths globally. Despite this, the government achieved a relative reduction in attacks and casualties in the latter half of the year by implementing stricter security measures, particularly following the August 2024 massacre in Djibo that claimed 200 lives. However, conditions in the north remain dire. Djibo remains under siege, facing critical shortages in food and medicine. Human rights concerns have also surfaced, with credible reports accusing government forces and pro-government militias of executing 100 civilians from the Fulani ethnic group in March 2024. These accusations raise fears of ethnic conflict escalating in a country already torn by institutional weakness and fragile social cohesion.
Regarding the situation inside Chad, the country is witnessing escalating security tensions following the announcement of Mohamed Idriss Déby’s victory in the presidential elections. The opposition rejected the results, accusing the government of electoral fraud, which led to sporadic protests and clashes with security forces. Internally, political and ethnic divisions are deepening, warning of broader unrest if immediate de-escalation measures are not taken. Regionally, tensions have intensified between Chad and Sudan’s military council, as Khartoum accuses N’Djamena of supporting the Rapid Support Forces, which are engaged in a bloody conflict with the Sudanese army. This accusation could open a new front of tension between the two countries and further complicate the security situation in the already unstable Sahel region
conclusion, the Sahel region stands on the brink of a major security and political crisis. With terrorist threats on the rise, state institutions crumbling, and internal fractures deepening, the region faces a perilous future. Without urgent and comprehensive intervention from both local and international actors, the Sahel risks spiraling into deeper chaos and prolonged instability.
