The implications of the US election results on some issues on the African continent

Prepared by the researche : Nourhan Mohammed Youssef – Political researcher

DAC Democratic Arabic Center GmbH

As the US presidential election approaches next November 5, the world is now awaiting what will result from this election, especially in the event of great competition. “Donald Trump” as well as “Camilla Harris”, and the consequences of these outcomes for the future of some regions of the world, particularly their consequences for the brunette continent, in the context of the unstable conditions in the world, particularly the Russian-Ukrainian war, the growing threats between Israel and Iran, and the repercussions on the Red Sea and the region, and thus the African continent, Although these elections are usually less important for the African continent, there has been no difference in the approach and strategy that the U.S. administration may take in its handling of the African continent, as the way U.S. administrations have dealt since President Bill Clinton’s tenure has been based on development programs, striving to promote the principles of democracy and human rights, and strengthening security partnerships.

It should be noted that the most significant challenges facing the new United States administration will be taking over from January, We will find a number of obstacles to strengthening US convergence and cooperation with the African continent. The African Union “, particularly in the light of the United States withdrawal from the African coast and the growing state of African hostility towards Western countries But it will also find other challenges, especially given the continuation of Sudan’s civil war. And the growing instability in the African Sahel region in the light of the proliferation of armed groups and growing instability in the African Sahel region in view of the deployment of armed groups and the growing phenomenon of military coups d ‘état, as well as threats to the Red Sea region and the Horn of Africa in particular in light of tensions between the Horn of Africa and the expansion of the Houthi Group’s operations and threats on the Red Sea, and it can be said that most Africans are beginning to feel distrust towards Washington. In particular, after failing to keep its promises to the continent, Hence, the results of the United States elections can be highlighted on the continent, as follows:

First: if Republican candidate Donald Trump wins

The African continent was arguably not given much attention by former President Donald Trump during the previous experiment in the White House; He did not visit the African continent, although the continent was experiencing many challenges, particularly tensions over the Renaissance Dam file and internal tensions in the Sudan. The continent also witnessed a resurgence of military coups d ‘état, initiated by Mali, But there are three central issues that could be the cornerstone of President Trump’s arrival at the White House:

For the GERD file: This file is expected to see a resurgence once Trump is inside the White House, especially after he failed during his first term to reach common understandings between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, after Addis Ababa refused to sign the deal, which made Trump give Egypt the green light to resolve the crisis militarily, But perhaps this is an attempt by Trump to implicate Egypt in a war against Ethiopia, which could weaken its military at the regional level, and perhaps at the moment Egypt does not have enough capabilities militarily to destroy the dam, as well as Sudan’s rejection of this deadly scenario for them.

In this context, Trump may support Israel’s efforts to establish a military base in Somaliland in return for its recognition, which means Ethiopian-Israeli convergence versus triangular cooperation between Egypt, Somalia and Eritrea, and the American side may be aligned with Israel’s interests with Ethiopia, This could pose a challenge to Egyptian interests in the GERD issue, increase Egyptian pressure in this file for either a war with Ethiopia, or increase pressure on the Egyptian leadership in the dam file, in exchange for negotiating the permission of the displacement of Palestinians to Sinai, which could serve the interests of the occupying power in the region.

For the future of Red Sea security: The Red Sea security dossier is likely to witness Trump’s interest, especially as he seeks to strengthen economic cooperation with Gulf States; It will undermine the activity of the Houthi group, work to strike large and wide on their main objectives, and may strengthen cooperation with the Gulf States. Trump supports Israel’s attempts to have a base in Somaliland, especially given the need for both States to undermine the Houthi group’s operations in the Red Sea,Furthermore, Trump may strengthen the strength of Al-Shabaab Somalia to expand its activity in the region, which Washington may exploit to establish a strong framework for Israel to move forward towards building a military base inside Somaliland; The area is of strategic geographical importance, located in the Gulf of Aden and near the entrance to the Bab El Mandeb Strait, through which nearly one third of the world’s shipping passes through, as borders Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti, and enjoys a 740-kilometre coast along the Gulf of Aden, making the Territory play a key role in protecting the Bab Al Mandeb, and the Red Sea of piracy and smuggling.

Regarding the stability of political regimes and coups d ‘état: although the previous period of the US President Trump has not seen much interest in the continent, but the US withdrawal from the African coast and the growing role of China and Russia in the region could spur “Trump” on the failure of U.S. President Joe Biden to establish an American strategy to strengthen relations with African countries, and obstruct Beijing and Moscow’s efforts to grow their influence within the African continent,And to strengthen the rapprochement with Africa again, to protect Washington in the region, especially because Trump will need the African market to build new partnerships, and this needs stability and security within society.

Second :if Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins

Kamala Harris is probably the best choice for the African continent, especially since the Democratic nominee is seen as a complement to President Joe Biden, and Harris is embracing the same strategy that Biden has pursued towards the continent, he strengthened the rapprochement with African countries, especially after feeling that Russia and China had begun to achieve a significant rapprochement with the countries of the continent. Given the situation on the African continent, it can be said that there are three pivotal issues that could be the cornerstone of Harris’ arrival at the White House:

For the Renaissance Dam file: The dam file was of little importance to the US President “Biden”, but the developments he may see will reinforce the inevitability of American intervention in this matter, especially after Ethiopia’s Prime Minister announced that the Renaissance Dam would be 100% completed by December and may work “Harris” approaches views from Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, in order to demonstrate American hegemony in the region, especially after the American image was greatly shaken, following the state of African rejection of Western countries within the African Sahel region.

For the future of Red Sea security: On arrival at the White House, Harris is expected to seek to strengthen American efforts to protect Red Sea security and promote the “Biden Plus” strategy; It may work to eliminate Houthi threats, by working on a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, thereby reducing Houthi attacks on the Red Sea, as well as working to resolve the escalating dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia, especially as this conflict grows, and American efforts fail to force Addis Ababa back from its agreement with Somaliland territory.

As for the stability of political regimes and coups d ‘état: Harris may be working to strengthen her convergence with the new African regimes, demonstrate herself as a strong and genuine supporter of the democratic transition on the continent, and will also benefit from President Biden’s failure to strengthen his convergence with the continent; Where Harris will work to protect Washington’s interests against African democratic transitions, which are in favor of Russia and China.

In conclusion, regardless of the outcome of these elections, but it is certain that Washington needs to adopt a strong strategy that allows it to protect its interests within the African region and the Red Sea in order to secure free trade and within the Red Sea. This is without involvement in a war within the region, and Washington needs to take advantage of the current United States Administration’s failure to achieve tangible success within the continent.

 President Biden promised to give African countries greater attention on global issues within international institutions. S continent is still far from permanent representation within the Security Council. And some global issues, such as climate change, continue to favour major nations, In the absence of an American role within the African continent, African countries have sought to diversify political, security and economic partnerships. Outside the United States, The prospect of an Afro-White House candidate would not be of interest to the continent, as was the case with former President Brack Obama, especially since he also failed to meet his desired expectations.