Prepared by the researche 

• Dr. Eman Abd El-Hamid Taha   – Economic Expert, Faculty of Helwan University
• Shaimaa A. Metwalli – PhD Researcher Economics, Faculty of African Studies, Cairo University
• Dr. Nermeen Mohamed Tawfik – Egyptian researcher in African affairs, holds a PhD in African political systems from Cairo University

Democratic Arabic Center

Journal of African Studies and the Nile Basin : Twenty-Eighth Issue – December 2024

A Periodical International Journal published by the “Democratic Arab Center” Germany – Berlin

:To download the pdf version of the research papers, please visit the following link

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Abstract

The research paper aims to shed light on the food security crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), by analyzing the current status of food security indicators in the region, and then addressing the most important factors affecting the food security crisis in the region. These factors are: economic factors, including (economic growth rate, food prices, debt crisis), the imbalance between supply and demand for food products, including (climate change, agricultural productivity, population growth), and political crises, including (military coups and internal and global conflicts). The paper then moved on to a case study of the five worst performing countries in SSA according to the Global Hunger Index for 2023, namely: Nigeria, Congo, Zimbabwe, Sudan, and Ethiopia. Finally, the study explores the various possible scenarios and prospects for (SSA) and the likelihood of their occurrence.

1. An Overview of Food Security in SSA

The World Food Summit held in 1996 defined food security as a situation achieved when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to adequate, safe and nutritious food that meets their nutritional needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. This is done by relying on 4 main dimensions: the availability of food (supply side), the ability to obtain foodstuffs, the utilization of foodstuffs, and the stability of obtaining foodstuffs periodically.[1]

Considering the situation of food security and nutrition globally, successive global crises led to a global economic recession that ended three decades of global progress in poverty reduction, contributing to an estimated increase of 90 million people facing hunger in just one year (from 2019 to 2020)[2] . Thus, the world is moving in the opposite direction to sustainable development goals 2.1 and 2.2, which relate to the elimination of hunger, food insecurity and all forms of malnutrition by 2030. [3]

The sub-Saharan African region has not been immune from the global situation, it is far off track to achieve the food security and nutrition goals contained in the Sustainable Development Goals, as well as the Malabo goals to eliminate hunger and all forms of malnutrition by 2025. After a long period of improvement between 2000 and 2010, hunger worsened significantly and most of this deterioration occurred especially after the COVID-19 pandemic.  The next part will focus on clarifying the most important indicators of the worsening food security and nutrition situation in sub-Saharan Africa.

1. 1 Global Hunger Index

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has developed a scale for assessing food insecurity, known as the Global Hunger Index (GHI), which takes into account 4 sub-indicators, namely: undernutrition, stunting of children, underweight, and infant mortality.[4]

The results of the GHI indicate that SSA and South Asia are among the regions with the highest prevalence of hunger during the period (2000-2023). Efforts to combat hunger in SSA over the past decade seems to be very weak compared to the period when progress was made (2000-2015). The Hunger Index decreased in 2015 to 27.9 degrees compared to 41.8 degrees in 2000, which is a huge progress in reducing the prevalence of hunger, but since then the situation has almost not changed, as the value of the index in 2023 reached about 27 degrees (Figure 1).

Source: Global Hunger Index, Available at: Global, Regional, and National Trends – Global Hunger Index (GHI) – peer-reviewed annual publication designed to comprehensively measure and track hunger at the global, regional, and country levels, accessed on 28 July 2024.

1. 2 Prevalence of Undernourishment

SSA is home to about 278 million people suffering from hunger and undernutrition in 2023, with an undernutrition prevalence reaching 23.2% in 2023, compared to about 18.2% in 2010. The highest annual increase in the prevalence of undernutrition occurred between 2019 and 2020 during the covid-19 pandemic (Figure 2).

* Values are based on the point estimates.

Source: The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, 2024.

This is in addition to the large disparities between regions in SSA, where East and Central Africa are among the regions with the highest prevalence of undernutrition, with rates of about 28.6% and 30.8%, respectively, in 2023. In contrast, we find that South Africa is among the regions with the lowest prevalence of undernutrition, with a prevalence rate of about 9.6% in 2023 (Figure 3).

* Values are based on the point estimates.

Source: The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, 2024.

1. 3 Prevalence of moderate and Severe food insecurity

About 63.3% of the population of SSA is experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity in 2023, and about 23.8% of the population suffered from severe food insecurity. In addition to the large regional disparities in SSA, Central Africa has the highest prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity (77.7%, or 157 million people), making it the most moderately or severely food insecure region in the world. It is followed by East Africa (64.5%, or 313 million people) and West Africa (61.4%, or 270 million people). A quarter of the South African population (17.3 million people) was also affected by moderate or severe food insecurity in 2023 (Figure 4).

Source: The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, 2024.

Central Africa is also the highest region in Africa and the world that is experiencing severe food insecurity by about 38% in 2023. In East Africa, 24.2% of the population is severely food insecure, followed by West Africa (18.8%) and South Africa (10.9%).

Between 2022 and 2023, the proportion of the population suffering from moderate or severe food insecurity increased slightly in most regions of SSA, especially in South Africa, where it increased by 2.1%. However, there is a clear improvement in East Africa – one of the most affected regions-where the proportion of the population suffering from moderate or severe food insecurity decreased by about 2.6% in 2023 compared to 2022. This is equivalent to more than 4 million people becoming moderately or severely food insecure in East Africa in one year.

Considering severe food insecurity, its prevalence remained relatively unchanged from 2022 to 2023 in Central Africa and Southern Africa, while severe food insecurity decreased slightly in East Africa in the same period, by 1.6%, while it increased slightly in West Africa (Figure 5).

Source: The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, 2024.

2. Factors behind low levels of food security in SSA

In recent decades, food security in SSA has become a pivotal issue that significantly affects the continent’s economic and social development. Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions to food crises, with millions of people facing acute food shortages and suffering from malnutrition. There are many factors playing a role in this crisis, including economic factors, political factors, and factors resulting from the imbalance between the supply of food products and the demand for them. The following section deals with the most prominent of these factors.

2. 1 Economic Factors

There are many economic factors contributing to the food security crisis in SSA, such as economic instability, agricultural markets, poor infrastructure, fluctuations in food commodity prices. African countries are often vulnerable to global price fluctuations due to dependence on food imports. Thus, a sudden rise in commodity prices can lead to a local food crisis, since the ability of households to afford food is directly affected by these fluctuations.

• Weak economic growth rates in the region

The economic growth rate reached its lowest levels in SSA in 2020 during the period (2000 – 2023). Although growth rates recovered in 2021 and 2022 (after the covid-19 pandemic), it declined again in 2023 to reach about 3.0% as a result of global conditions, especially the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. This suggests that the recovery remains fragile, and there is a need to overcome significant challenges related to low and unstable growth, high levels of poverty and inequality, and the difficulty of translating growth into poverty reduction.[5]

It should be noted that the relationship between economic growth and food security is reciprocal. On the one hand, low economic growth rates are reflected in low incomes and wages, and therefore the ability to get enough and healthy food. On the other hand, the inability of an individual to obtain adequate and healthy food negatively affects the health status of workers and, consequently, their productivity and, consequently, economic growth[6].

SSA countries have faced enormous obstacles on the way to achieving high economic growth and significant global economic participation. However, the current economic growth rates are still insufficient to significantly reduce extreme poverty and allow these countries to catch up with other developing countries, alleviate poverty and raise living standards, which requires achieving significantly and steadily high economic growth rates in order for growth to have the desired effect[7].

• Rising Food Prices

SSA is facing great challenges due to high prices and their fluctuations, which significantly affect the economies of these countries, especially in recent times, where the global economic crises, in addition to the internal conditions of the countries of the region, which lead to higher inflation rates in the region compared to global inflation rates.

Although inflation rates have slowed in most countries of the region after reaching its peak in 2022, it is still high compared to the pre-pandemic period, as about 13 countries in the region are experiencing an increase in inflation rates, with the average inflation reaching 27% in 2023.[8]

There are many causes of inflation in the region, and the two most important causes of inflation are: high global food prices and the region’s dependence on food imports. Another reason is the weakness of local currencies in the region. The following is an explanation of these reasons:

• Foodpriceinflationanddependence on foodimports

High food prices in SSA are one of the factors threatening food security in the region. Although global food prices have seen a significant decline since their peak in March 2022 (figure 6), food inflation remains high in many countries in the region, which have recorded double-digit annual food inflation rates, especially in Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Zimbabwe.[9]

Source: FAO, Available at: https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

Accessed on, 30 July 2024.

This is in addition to the fact that the proportion of spending on food from the total family budget is significantly higher in SSA. For example, in Nigeria, the most populous country, this figure represents 59% in 2022, which is the highest country in the world spending on food, followed by Kenya at 56.7%, and Angola at 49.6%.[10]

The high cost of food imports in local currencies (as a result of the low exchange rate), the high costs of logistics services abroad (high shipping costs) and at home (high cost of transportation and high fertilizer prices) are the main reasons for food price inflation in the region. High food prices tend to have a greater impact on the budgets of low-income households. According to research by Calestous Juma, a professor at Harvard University, Africa could achieve food self-sufficiency if it stopped relying on food imports[11].

SSA is one of the highest food importing regions in the world for many decades. looking at 2021, the percentage of food imports to the region to total global food imports is about 32.5% (Figure 7).

Source: World Integrated Trade Solution, Available at: https://wits.worldbank.org/Default.aspx?lang=en

In an analysis of the most important internal and external factors affecting domestic staple food prices in SSA, (Okou, P., and others) explained that external factors affecting the region drive food price inflation, but local factors can mitigate this impact.

In terms of external factors, the region is highly vulnerable to World Food prices, as the transfer of world prices to local prices for imported staple foods is highly affected. On the domestic side, inflation in the prices of basic foodstuffs is lower in countries with large domestic production and among products with low consumption quotas. [12]

• Weakness of local currencies in the region

Most of the African currencies have weakened in SSA countries against the US dollar, fueling inflationary pressures across the continent as import prices rise. In 2023, the Nigerian naira, the Angolan Kwanza, the Malawian Kwacha and the South Sudanese Pound were the worst performing currencies in the region: these currencies recorded year-end declines ranging from 37.3% (South Sudan) to 49.5% (Nigeria).

Of course, the weakening of the local currency affects the rise in the value of the import bill, including food imports. The reasons for the depreciation of local currencies in the countries of the region are different. For example, the devaluation of the naira was the result of the liberalization of the official exchange rate since June 2023. In Angola, low oil prices, oil production and high debt repayment contributed to the devaluation of the currency. By the end of 2023, almost 40% of the countries in the region had international reserves of less than three months of imports[13].

• Debt crisis

The debt crisis in SSA is a major challenge facing many countries in this region. This challenge is characterized by the accumulation of external debt, which burdens national economies and hinders the possibility of sustainable development and improving the standard of living of the population.

The cost of paying off debt in the region has risen. As for the ratio of interest payments to revenues in the region, it doubled in 2022, compared to 2010, and it is almost four times the ratio in advanced economies.^[14]

The debt crisis in the region as a result of inappropriate borrowing from Bretton Woods institutions such as the World Bank, that caused SSA countries to be heavily indebted and lack the necessary productive assets to service their debts. The structural adjustment policies imposed by these institutions also forced states to reduce spending on agriculture, education, housing and health, and allowed private foreign investment to extract resources that support the livelihoods of local communities. This has led to a vicious cycle of debt and interest payments draining the region’s wealth needed for local development. This has affected the persistence of poverty in the region and is an obstacle to the development of cost-effective and locally convenient local production and supply chains.

Structural adjustment plans have forced governments to allow international companies and local investors to acquire agricultural land, and food-producing farmers have been evicted from their land, undermining food security and livelihoods. ^[15]

In general, the weak financial resources of the region and the limited financial space of the region’s countries are reflected in their inability to spend to cope with crises, and their heavy dependence on foreign aid, [16] which contributes to their inability to reach marginalized groups who are unable to spend during crises, such as providing affordable food programs and providing health care for children.[17]

2. 2 Imbalance between the supply of food products and the demand

Despite possessing vast areas of arable land and rich natural resources, SSA faces many challenges that limit agricultural productivity and provide food for its growing population, as it relies heavily on meeting its food resources from abroad. According to the FAO database, food imports for central, eastern, western and Southern Africa are concentrated in wheat and rice. There is also a persistent gap between domestic production and demand for it. There is not a single African country that does not suffer from difficult Food conditions either with a shortage, scarcity or poor quality of available food. ^[18]

Climate change and its mutations are among the most important factors that have affected the degree of soil salinity in Africa, as well as agricultural policies, both domestic and International, are among the factors that have reduced the supply of agricultural crops in Africa at a time when domestic demand is growing.

• Shocks and Climate changes

The African continent is one of the most affected regions of the world by climate change, although it is the least in terms of carbon emissions, as its share of global carbon emissions does not exceed 3.8%,[19] and Africa (especially East Africa) suffers from droughts from time to time. However, it can be said that the effects of climate change on the African continent have many dimensions, perhaps because it is a global issue, it does not depend on the decline in agricultural productivity and the deterioration of the harvest season, but the situation extends in the investment policies of Western countries in a direction to reduce carbon emissions to the forests of Africa (which is the largest carbon store in the world), extract more minerals necessary for the green industry, and even limit agricultural exports by imposing a carbon tax.

Agriculture in SSA is highly dependent on rainwater, accounting for 95% of rain-fed agriculture²⁰. For example, the low level of rainfall over four consecutive seasons (since October 2020) in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia has led to food insecurity in the Horn of Africa in a way that has not been seen for at least 40 years[20]. On the one hand, and on the other, the transformation of high carbon emissions into high acidity of rainfall, which negatively affects the suitability of soils for agriculture.

The decrease in the area of arable land suitable for crop production, increases the lack of nutrition and, consequently, the spread of diseases and epidemics. Four countries have suffered from cholera outbreaks, including South Sudan, and there is also an increase in cases of malaria – which is endemic in the Greater Horn region (includes 7 countries: Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda), as well as chronic outbreaks of hepatitis, meningitis, and dengue fever, which were first announced in Khartoum in February 2023. The coincidence of the outbreaks of these diseases is directly related to extreme weather events and climate change. [21]

The increase in temperature by 1 degree Celsius has affected the decline in agricultural production in South African countries by an average of 2.66%, reducing economic growth by an average of 1.3 percentage points per degree of temperature.

The drought also led to the loss of farmers in South Africa by more than 5 billion rand (equivalent to 276 million US dollars) between 2014 and 2016. The continuation of drought in the Horn of Africa over the past years has led to damage to agricultural crops, the loss of livestock herds, and the spread of water scarcity, which in turn has led to an increase in the proportion of hunger-related deaths, due to direct and indirect effects on the livelihoods of the population, and the inability to obtain water and food. ²²

El Nino phenomenon:

Beginning in July 2023, El Nino is a climatic phenomenon that creates a disturbance in precipitation patterns caused by the warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean[22]. The effects of this phenomenon have had many disasters, including:

– In Somalia, the government declared a state of emergency after severe weather conditions killed at least 25 people and destroyed houses, roads and bridges. The heavy rains come after four consecutive years of drought that have pushed Somalia to the brink of famine.

– In Kenya, flash floods destroyed about 241 acres of agricultural land and killed 1,067 head of livestock[23].

– In Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe, a national emergency has been declared due to the El Nino phenomenon, as the lack of rainfall during November and December 2023 led to the destruction of crops for January and February 2024.

– The region stretching from Angola to Zimbabwe, the El Nino phenomenon caused the drying up of fertile soils, interrupting the production of basic foodstuffs such as corn. Access to food has decreased, especially as stocks are decreasing as a result of rising prices[24].

– In the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two countries with the heaviest cocoa production, cocoa production in Ghana is expected to be the lowest in 13 years, and the Ivory Coast’s production is expected to be the lowest in seven years, as continued rains have turned dirt roads into impassable swamps, uprooting cocoa flowers, and the proliferation of fungal infections that turn cocoa pods the size of a rugby ball into black mush, which has led to higher production costs for farmers[25].

It should be noted that it is difficult to mitigate the effects of climate change on African lands in light of the worsening debt and the decline in financial resources, although about half of the area allocated for the restoration of ecosystems in the world is located in Africa, but the degradation of about 65% of productive land and the occurrence of desertification of about 45% of the total land area of the continent, prevent this[26].

For example, developed countries are moving in accordance with international conventions to reduce production with fossil fuels and strive to produce electric cars, the production of which requires environmentally friendly minerals that are found only on the African continent. In light of the thirst of these countries for foreign resources, they welcome foreign investments seeking to exploit the extractive fields from future generations, in addition to leasing forests as a carbon store and displacing the indigenous populations in these areas so that these countries can obtain the newly developed resources.

In addition, the EU has resorted to imposing a carbon tax on imported carbon-intensive products such as fertilizers, cement, iron, steel and aluminum, in order to encourage companies to adopt better clean energy technology and prevent the production of carbon-rich goods outside the EU, scheduled to enter into force in 2026. However, the real goal may be to make it difficult for European manufacturers to compete with cheaper and more polluting production outside their borders. This may cost the African continent 25 billion dollars a year, which may prevent the increase in the added value of African exports and the achievement of economic diversification[27].

According to the Notre Dame Institute’s ND-GAIN Index, the five least resilient countries for climate change worldwide in 2023 are: Chad, the Central African Republic, Eritrea, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guinea-Bissau. Therefore, they are expected to see wide-ranging adverse effects due to inadequacy.[28]

Poor agricultural productivity

One of the most factors that led to the weakening of agricultural productivity, other than climatic factors, is the adoption of agricultural freedom and the abolition of subsidies and subsidies for farmers, which was dictated to the governments of those countries by the World Trade Organization and international financial institutions. Therefore, most of these countries have turned to the production of monetary goods at the expense of food commodities and rely on the import of cereals from abroad, while products such as cocoa, coffee, tea, bananas, peanuts, flowers, Cotton are exported. Low agricultural productivity, inequity and poor distribution have many reasons, among which we mention:

– Trading and speculating on the prices of various agricultural commodities on the Chicago Stock Exchange, for example, and the pursuit by producing countries of the maximum possible profit.

– Advanced governments prefer agrofuels, and facilitate the reduction of fossil fuel emissions by consuming half of the amount produced from corn for agrofuels, while only half of the amount is put on the food market, to cover the shortage and ease the pressure on grain prices.

– The monopoly and control of 4 intercontinental companies, three of which are American and one is French, over 70% of the global grain market. [29]

– Poor infrastructure, low agricultural investment. Only 5% of irrigable land in sub-Saharan Africa is equipped, compared to 37% in South and East Asia. The region is about 450 times lower than the global average.

– Low spending on scientific research, Africa’s share of global spending on research and development has remained at the level of 1.01% since 2014 until 2021. On the other hand, spending on research and development in sub-Saharan Africa accounted for only 0.45% of the continent’s GDP. While spending on research and development is vital for the African continent, for the development of new varieties of crops and resistance to pests and widespread diseases. Moreover, many farmers lack knowledge of modern agricultural techniques and Natural Resource Management.

– Changing consumption patterns, from the consumption of local staple crops that were dependent on them in the past, to the consumption of wheat instead of relying on their local sources^[30].

– Lack of transparency and the enactment of strict laws to deal with the bulldozing of agricultural land at the expense of mining. for example, small farmers in rural Gwanda, a region in Zimbabwe on the border with South Africa, have been affected by high temperatures, droughts and floods caused by climate change, water pollution and land affected by illegal small-scale mining. they were surprised to dig up agricultural land at night for mining. therefore, the Zimbabwean government needs to enact laws criminalizing the bulldozing and destruction of agricultural land, and prevent mining unless the necessary licenses are obtained[31].

– Market defects and institutional distortions have the potential to limit productivity and profits, as companies and farms face extensive credit restrictions, in addition to difficult access to product markets, which prevents companies and farms from increasing their production[32].

– Conflicts, wars and coups have led to the destruction of agricultural infrastructure and an increase in the number of displaced people, including farmers, and therefore a shortage of labor in the fields. for example, the increase in the number of displaced people to about 6.7 million people led to a decrease in the grain harvest in the Sahel region by 12% in 2022 compared to 2021, 15% in Mali and 36% in Niger during the same year[33].

• High population growth rate

The region of Africa is one of the highest continents in the world with a high population growth rate in 2023, reaching 2.37%. The following table shows the most important reasons for the high population growth rate in Africa, which are: an increase in the proportion of the population living in rural than urban, early marriage (the average was 19 years), and a high fertility rate.

Table (1): Main Characteristics of Population within Regions in 2023

Region	Population (million)	Growth rate of POP	Migrants (net)	Fert. Rate		Med. Age		Urban POP%	World Share
Asia	4,753.1	0.64%	-1,487,191	1.93	32		52.60%		59.10%
Africa	1,460.5	2.37%	-535,151	4.18	19		44.70%		18.20%
Europe	742.3	-0.17%	792,167	1.5	42		75.70%		9.20%
Latin America and the Caribbean	665.0	0.72%	-161,800	1.84	31		84%		8.30%
Northern America	378.9	0.54%	1,249,364	1.64	38		82.80%		4.70%
Oceania	45.6	1.19%	142,770	2.13	33		66%		0.60%

The contribution of the population of the African continent is expected to increase to about 26% of the total world population, or more than a quarter of the world’s population, in 2050, compared to less than 10% of the total world population in 1950, due to the low mortality rate and the high birth rate.

According to the UN, only eight countries globally account for more than half of the increase in the world’s population over the next three decades, five of these countries are located in Africa. The working-age population is also growing in most African countries, faster than any other age group.

Niger and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are the most populous sub-Saharan African countries in 2023 with 3.7% and 3.2%, respectively, followed by Chad, Mali and Somalia with 3.1%.[34]

The human wealth that has been bestowed upon the African continent has the potential to shape the global population map. However, this can only be achieved if this wealth is provided with a quality life. In the face of water scarcity and low levels of food security, the anticipated challenges of rapid population growth will not only affect African countries but will also extend to the rest of the world through population displacement.

2. 3 Political crises and their negative impacts on food security in Africa:

There is a direct relationship between political conflicts in African countries and the food insecurity crisis in the continent, where some of them are suffering from civil wars while others are exposed to military coups. These conflicts increase the severity of food insecurity and as well as increase famines, and make it difficult for citizens of these countries to obtain food or clean water, in addition to waves of displacement or asylum that put pressure on new places where those refugees fled to and can trigger new conflicts.

• Internal conflicts (civil wars – military coups):

Indicators show a direct relationship between the political crises and the increasing number of Africans facing acute food insecurity in countries exposed to political conflicts. The Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) indicated, in a report issued in October 2023, that conflict continues to be the primary driver of Africa’s food crisis which transformed to more dangerous levels. Underscoring that some 122 million out of 149 million Africans facing acute food insecurity are in countries experiencing conflict – 82 % of the total – accentuating that conflict is the primary driver of acute food insecurity in Africa. And 8 of the top 10 African countries experiencing acute food insecurity are facing conflict.[35]

While 38 African countries are experiencing some level of acute food insecurity, roughly two-thirds of this threat is concentrated in five countries: The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia, and South Sudan, all of which are conflict-affected. The war in Sudan between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that broke out in April 2023 was a major cause of the increasing people suffering from starvation in Africa.[36]

• Military coups and increased military spending:

Sub-Saharan African countries witnessed more than 7 military coups from 2020 to 2023, most of which occurred in West African countries or what is called the “coup belt” in the African Sahel, most notably (Mali – Guinea – Burkina Faso – Niger – Gabon). These coups reflected the fragility of the rule of law in Africa. The affected states face a slow post-pandemic recovery exacerbated by climate change shocks. Food insecurity, political instability, stagnating economies, high-interest rates, and weak governance further add to their challenges, furthermore the economic sanctions imposed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on these countries; which increased the suffering of their people.[37]

In addition to the increase in military spending, which means affecting spending on other services, for example, The DRC’s military spending increased by 105% to $794 million, according to the Trends in World Military Expenditure 2023 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The report noted that the DRC’s increased spending also “coincided with growing tensions with Rwanda” and “a government move to strengthen the Congolese armed forces after it demanded the early withdrawal of a large-scale United Nations peacekeeping mission in the country,” known as MONUSCO.[38]

 South Sudan recorded a 78% increase in military spending to reach more than $1 billion in 2023. While in 2022, the country’s military spending increased by 108%, according to the SIPRI report, which attributed the increased expenditure to “escalating internal violence” and security challenges related to the civil war in neighbouring Sudan.

The SIPRI report indicated that conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine drove a rise in military spending but noted that the increase was a global phenomenon seen across all continents, the largest percentage was in Africa. Expenditures rose by 9% in the Middle East, 16% in Europe, 4.4% in Asia and Oceania, 2.2% in the Americas and 22% in Africa.[39]

• Global conflicts (Russian-Ukrainian war)

Food insecurity is not limited to internal crises in Africa only, but extends to include external global conflicts that have increased the negative effects on food security in Africa, most notably the Russian-Ukrainian war; which led to disruption of supply chains, high levels of inflation; and a significant increase in food prices, in addition to Moscow’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain deal; which exacerbated the food crisis in Africa.

FAO food price index indicated that world food prices jumped nearly 13 % in March 2022 to a new record high as the war in Ukraine continues to rage, due to the dependence of many countries on imports of agricultural products and fertilizer from Russia and Ukraine.[40]

• The role of climate change in creating new conflicts:

 The food insecurity crisis caused by climate change, such as drought or floods, can create conflicts over resource areas, such as the conflict between Ethiopia and Sudan overgrazing in the “Al-Fashaga” area, in addition to the socio-economic pressure that resulted from rising food prices is feared to create further social tension and instability.

This exposes the significant impact of political instability and internal and external crises on increasing food insecurity rates in Africa.

3. An analytical view of the most hunger African countries

This section deals with case studies of some of the worst-performing countries in SSA according to the Global Hunger Index for 2023, and five of the ten worst-performing countries have been selected to understand the main factors contributing to the worsening of food security and the various influences that contribute to its continuation. These countries are represented by: Nigeria, Congo, Zimbabwe, Sudan and Ethiopia.

3. 1 Nigeria

Nigeria is the largest oil producer on the African continent, and its economy depends mainly on oil revenues, which at the same time is the main reason for its stumbling. Since 2020, oil production has declined due to theft and sabotage in the Niger Delta, and weak investment in New and existing oil fields. The International Monetary Fund has warned of the crises hitting the Nigerian economy, as a result of high inflation, exchange crisis, weak economic growth and business closures, which negatively affect per capita growth, poverty and increased food insecurity, exacerbating the ongoing cost of living crisis in Nigeria.

GDP per capita reached about 2.5 thousand dollars in 2023, and although this value is high compared to other countries suffering from high levels of food insecurity in the region, it is lower than the global average of about 11.6 thousand dollars in 2023. The Nigerian currency (Naira) also experienced a significant decline in 2023, falling by about 70% against the dollar. Fuel subsidies have also been eliminated. This, in turn, affected the rise in inflation rates to reach about 24.7% in 2023 compared to about 18.8% in the previous year, and this rate is the highest rate for 28 years, leading to a crisis in the cost of living that will undermine stability in the most populous country in Africa.[41]

In addition, about 40% of the Nigerian population lives in extreme poverty. This percentage has recently increased as a result of the high cost of living. About 68% of the revenue collected by the Nigerian government in the first half of 2024 was used for debt servicing.

Agriculture and climate changes

The agricultural sector is one of the most important pillars of the economy in Nigeria, covering about 78% of the total land area and contributing to 24.4% of GDP. The sector is dominated by smallholder farmers, who face challenges such as low soil fertility and inefficient agricultural practices, leading to low productivity and increased dependence on food imports such as rice and wheat. Despite being the second largest importer of rice, Nigeria is also a major producer of cassava, and is working to boost local production through initiatives to attract young people to agriculture and improve crop production.

Agriculture in Nigeria is highly dependent on monsoon rains, which makes the sector sensitive to climate change. Farmers in the southern regions suffer from flooding and soil loss, while the North faces challenges due to low rainfall and high temperatures, threatening livestock and crop productivity. To meet these challenges, Nigeria has adopted strategies to develop irrigation infrastructure, improve resource management, increase reliance on drought-resistant crop varieties, enhance food security through improved storage facilities and provide agricultural insurance[42].

Political Conflicts:

An estimated 24.9 million Nigerians are facing food insecurity and hunger, and according to the Food and Agriculture Organization, restrictions on humanitarian access remain very high, especially in the regions of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa due to the ongoing violence linked to the armed Islamist groups Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa; reflecting the direct impact of armed conflicts on the high levels of food insecurity in African countries. [43]

3. 2 Congo, Rep.

The Republic of the Congo is the third largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa, and it is also rich in mineral resources, however, its GDP per capita reached about 1.7 thousand dollars in 2023 with a growth rate of (-0.4%), and the poverty rate increased to 46.8% of the population.

Fuel subsidies contributed to the high inflation rate in 2023, which amounted to about 4.3%. Although food inflation slowed down in 2023 but remains high at 4.3%, it is likely to affect the poorest segments of the population as they usually spend a larger share of their family budget on food.[44]

The Republic of the Congo is still suffering from debt distress, with the government debt-to-GDP ratio reaching about 100.8% in 2023, but it is expected to decrease in 2024 to reach 94.6% due to debt restructuring.[45]

According to the United Nations, the Republic of the Congo suffers from chronic malnutrition is a pressing concern, particularly among children under the age of five, of whom 19.6% are affected. This alarming figure is compounded by the fact that domestic food production meets only 30% of the country’s needs, forcing heavy reliance on food imports.[46]

Agriculture and climate changes

The Republic of the Congo is one of the regions most affected by climate change, as it suffers from climate risks, such as prolonged droughts, increased flooding, and rising temperatures, which directly affect agricultural productivity, water availability, and human health, with 36% of the Congolese population suffering from food insecurity and up to 20% reduced labor productivity due to heat stress.

The forests of the Congo Basin, covering almost 60% of the country’s territory, are an important natural asset of the Republic of the Congo. These forests play a crucial role in sequestering carbon, conserving biodiversity, and providing livelihoods for local communities, but unsustainable practices such as illegal logging and lack of enforcement of current regulations, such as concession management, pose a threat to this valuable ecosystem.

In the south of the country, deforestation (where more than 80% of the rural population lives) is mainly caused by Slash-and-burn agriculture by smallholder farmers who have no alternatives, due to weak market links for both the sale of products and the purchase of inputs, lack of access to financial services at affordable prices, and lack of secure land tenure which makes investing in land productivity even more risky.

Forecasts indicate possible GDP losses of 7-16% by 2050 under various climate scenarios, which poses a significant threat to the country’s economic stability. [47]

3. 3 Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe suffers from a weak GDP per capita, with a GDP per capita of about 1.4 thousand dollars in 2023. The poverty rate increased to reach 38.7% of the population in 2023. The value of the Zimbabwean dollar has also witnessed a continuous decline, as its value fell by 89.8% in 2023, which led to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe to issue a new currency on April 5, 2024, Zimbabwe gold, which replaced the Zimbabwean dollar. [48]

As for the inflation rate in Zimbabwe, it has exceeded the 100% barrier in the last five years, according to the latest available statement from the World Bank, the inflation rate reached about 104.7% in 2022, but the inflation rate is expected to decrease in light of the stability of the exchange rate to reach an average of 24.9% in 2024[49]. High inflation levels in Zimbabwe have affected an unprecedented rise in the prices of goods and services, including food.

As for the debt side, the government debt percentage of GDP reached about 90.2% in 2023, and it is expected to continue to rise in 2024 to reach about 98.5%. This is the responsibility of the government, as high debt levels affect the government’s ability to allocate the necessary resources to support the agricultural sector and food production[50]  .

Agriculture and climate changes

Agricultural land in Zimbabwe accounted for 42% of the total land area in 2016, and agriculture contributed to 67% of total employment. This sector is highly dependent on rainfall, which makes it vulnerable to climate fluctuations and extreme weather events. With the increasing impacts of climate change, Zimbabwe is facing significant challenges in maintaining the sustainability of the agriculture sector, which has prompted it to focus on building climate resilience and promoting low-carbon growth through national policies and development planning.

About 80% of Agriculture in Zimbabwe depends on rains, while only 20% of agricultural land is irrigated, with Zimbabwe being one of the most irrigation-dependent countries in South Africa. The country provides 123,000 hectares of irrigated land, with the possibility of irrigating an additional 80,000 hectares of groundwater. Zimbabwe grows a variety of crops including maize, tobacco, and cotton, which are considered the most valuable in terms of market. However, climate change, from a decrease in the level of precipitation and an increase in temperatures, is expected to lead to a decrease in the productivity of pastures and livestock. Studies show that the ability of pastures to support livestock and wildlife will decrease significantly by 2080, especially in the south-western and north-western regions, Which threatens to increase food insecurity, high unemployment, and low economic growth in the country.[51]

3. 4 Sudan

The political conflicts in Sudan have affected the economic situation, as the real GDP shrank by 37.5% in 2023, due to the decline in production capacity and disruption of economic activities, with the reduction of services, which led to a slowdown in growth, this is from the supply side. On the demand side, the decline in incomes and mass displacement have reduced consumption.

The fiscal deficit widened to 9.1% of GDP in 2023 as tax revenues decreased, which increased the expenditure side, pushing inflation to 245.3% in 2023. Inflation was also exacerbated by a shortage of consumer goods and a devaluation of the currency. Sudan continues to suffer from debt distress, as political instability has led to the suspension of the heavily indebted poor countries debt reduction initiative.

The poverty rate reached about 66.1% in 2022, and this percentage is likely to have increased in 2023 due to the conflict and the decline in per capita GDP, which reached about 878.7 dollars in 2023, which is the lowest value in the five countries.[52]

Agriculture and climate changes

Sudan has a coastal belt with the Sahara in the Far North, fertile lands in the Nile and Jazira valleys and across the rest of the country from Darfur to Kassala via the Blue Nile and the state of Kordofan, famous for agriculture and cattle breeding. Apart from oil, the agriculture and livestock sectors play an essential role in the overall economy of Sudan. The country has a population of about 43.9 million people (2020). The country’s water, agriculture, coastal zone and health sectors are the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. [53]

Civil War in Sudan

Sudan has long suffered from the problem of food security in the East African region, despite being classified as the continent’s food basket; due to the political crises that Sudan has gone through and is going through, and recently the civil war that broke out in Sudan between the Sudanese army led by General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, Chairman of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, and the Rapid Support Forces led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo – Hemeti, has exacerbated this war, which resulted in a large wave of Sudanese refugees to neighboring countries, and the war has led to the risk of famine in the country.

The United Nations warned in May 2024 that about 5 million people in Sudan are on the brink of famine, warning that the opportunity to avoid famine in conflict areas is rapidly narrowing with the advent of the lean season and the start of the rainy and flooding season; which will make access to vital transportation routes impossible.

The World Food Programme indicated that of the 18 million people in Sudan estimated to be suffering from severe food insecurity, only 25 to 30 percent of them can be reached, reflecting that Sudan is on the brink of a humanitarian disaster, especially in Darfur and Kordofan, and with the rainy season and floods, many roads become unusable.[54]

3. 5 Ethiopia

Poverty is one of the most prominent economic factors contributing to the outbreak of the food crisis in Ethiopia, where a large part of the population suffers from very low levels of income, as the GDP per capita reached about 890.3 dollars in 2023[55], which directly affects their ability to buy adequate and nutritious food. Chronic poverty limits households ‘ ability to access basic resources, including food.

There are also many other factors contributing to the spread of food insecurity in Ethiopia, including that the economy is facing high inflation, an acute shortage of foreign exchange, a high debt burden and a low mobilization of domestic resources, which has affected the macroeconomic stability in Ethiopia. The inflation rate reached 30.6% in 2023, the third highest in Africa and the eighth highest in the world. The exchange rate has also continued to decline, with the parallel market rate of 105 Ethiopian birr for 1 US dollar as of December 2023, compared to the official rate of 56 Ethiopian birr for 1 US dollar. In addition, Ethiopia’s public debt amounted to about 57.15 billion US dollars at the end of November 2023, which is 52.1% of its GDP. In December 2023, Ethiopia also defaulted on the payment of 33 million US dollars for Eurobonds. Unless a debt restructuring is agreed soon, this will have economic consequences in 2024 and beyond[56].

Agriculture and climate changes

The agriculture sector plays a major role in Ethiopia’s economy, contributing 34% of GDP, and with about 75% of Ethiopia’s total exports (such as coffee and livestock), the agriculture sector is dominated by small farmers who are still heavily dependent on rainfall (only 1% of the total cultivated land is irrigated). They use low technologies and lack access to financial or technical services. Droughts have led to crop damage, loss of pastures and water sources, loss of animals, hunger, disease outbreaks, depletion of assets, malnutrition and migration, they are one of the main causes of food insecurity in Ethiopia.

Many small farmers in Ethiopia grow slow-ripening, high-yielding “long cycle” crops that depend on two rainy seasons to reach harvest, and are therefore more susceptible to changes in seasonal rainfall. The majority of the land area is less than 1/2 ha and is insufficient to maintain food security for households.

It is estimated that Ethiopia will lose more than 6% of agricultural production per year, if the current decline in average annual rainfall levels of primary agricultural areas continues until the middle of the century, as rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns may increase soil erosion and increase the increasing difficulties of many crops as well as Shorten growing seasons. In addition, heat stress has a variety of adverse effects on livestock, such as reduced milk production and meat production.

Floods (both sudden and river) also lead to damage to crops and infrastructure and contribute to large-scale land degradation problems throughout the country. [57]

The Nina phenomenon:

Forecasts indicate that the East African region may face a lack of precipitation over the coming months, increasing the risk of drought and negatively affecting food security in a region plagued by poverty and conflict. There is a high probability of the occurrence of the “Nina” phenomenon in the last quarter of 2024, which is associated with low rainfall and the onset of drought, especially in the Horn of Africa. This could exacerbate food security situations that have already been affected by conflict and displacement.

The number of people in need of food assistance in the region is expected to rise to about 130 million people, equivalent to 11% of the population, with needs increasing especially in countries such as Yemen, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria and Ethiopia.

The region is already experiencing the effects of climate change, as during May 2024 it experienced floods that killed 400 people, destroyed vast agricultural areas and lost livestock. In 2022, it also suffered the worst drought in four decades, which led to high food prices and protests in Kenya over the high cost of living. [58]

The war in the Tigray region in Ethiopia

With the outbreak of the Tigray region crisis that occurred in Ethiopia during the period from (2020 to 2022) between the Ethiopian central government and the Tigray Liberation Front, the citizens of the region suffered from the consequences of the conflict.

In June 2021, the United Nations indicated that four million people are facing severe hunger in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, and hundreds of thousands of them are living in catastrophic famine conditions, according to data from an analysis issued by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification in Tigray and the Amhara and Afar regions indicating the extent of the hunger emergency sweeping Tigray and neighboring areas. It concluded that during May-June 2021, more than 350,000 people entered the famine-humanitarian catastrophe phase (IPC 5), the highest number of people classified in this phase since 2011 during the famine in Somalia. About 5.5 million people (61% of the region’s population) also faced high levels of acute food insecurity: more than 3 million people in a state of acute food and livelihood crisis (IPC 3) and more than 2 million people in a state of humanitarian relief/emergency phase (IPC 4).

And according to the report, the reason for severe food insecurity in Tigray is the conflict between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray Liberation Front, which has led to mass displacement of people, widespread destruction of livelihoods and vital infrastructure, loss of employment opportunities, and difficulty in delivering aid to affected areas.[59]

4. Future scenarios for the future of food security in SSA
5. 1 Scenarios related to economic factors

GDP forecasts are reflected on food security both directly and indirectly. A higher GDP can lead to an increase in per capita income, which enhances purchasing power and reduces the risk of food insecurity among the population.

According to the ISS African Futures and Innovation platform (current path forecast) ^[60], Africa will experience positive economic growth rates over the next two decades, however, population growth forecasts will also remain high, which in turn affects the modesty of GDP per capita, and therefore its purchasing power, especially for the purchase of food.

The forecast for GDP per capita growth in sub-Saharan Africa is also far from the global average. It is expected that the average per capita GDP globally will reach about 22.3 thousand dollars in 2043, compared to 5.7 thousand dollars in SSA! This will be reflected in the continued suffering of the region in obtaining adequate and healthy food.

As for the poverty rate in SSA, according to the ISS African Futures and Innovation platform (current path forecast), the number of extreme poor in the region will decrease from 441.9 million in 2019 to 395.2 million in 2043, and although the poverty rate will decrease significantly from 40.9% in 2019 to 23.7% in 2043, it will continue to be one of the problems facing the region. This is due to several factors, including: poor governance, weak institutional development, rapid population growth, rising inequality, and high unemployment, which is slowly translating into a decrease in poverty, and therefore continued food insecurity in the region.

Several analyses have indicated that the future of debt in sub-Saharan Africa is uncertain and depends on many global developments, as follows:^[61]

• The optimistic scenario about the future of African debt depends mainly on the decline in US interest rates, the weakening of the US dollar, and consequently the gradual improvement in African currencies against the dollar and the reduction in the cost of imports and goods in local terms (especially food imports), and then low inflation levels, in addition to the reduction in the cost of servicing dollar-denominated debt on the countries of the region, and thus getting out of debt distress.
• The pessimistic scenario about the future of African debt depends on many factors, which play an important role in weighting this scenario, including the expectation of higher US interest rates in the medium term, especially in light of the expected inflation as a result of trade protectionist policies, the modest growth rate of output in SSA, the weakness of the infrastructure necessary to exploit the resources of the region.

4. 2 Agricultural Production Scenarios:

In 2019, the average crop yield in Sub-Saharan Africa was 3.7 metric tons per hectare, slightly lower than the African average of 3.9 tons per hectare. By 2043, production in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to improve to 5.0 tons per hectare if current conditions persist (ISS – African Futures).

However, a more optimistic scenario (assuming improved land management, advanced seed and fertilizer technology, increased irrigated land, reduced waste, and a focus on achieving food self-sufficiency as a political goal rather than prioritizing food exports) predicts that the average crop yield in Sub-Saharan Africa could reach 8.3 tons per hectare (agricultural scenario, according to ISS – African Futures), representing a nearly 66% increase. Mauritius, Swaziland, and Rwanda are expected to achieve the highest yields, while Niger, Mauritania, and The Gambia are expected to have the lowest production levels due to low rainfall and poor adoption of agricultural technology.

Consequently, under the future scenario (based on historical data trends), the contribution of agriculture to the GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to decrease from 14.5% in 2019 to 6.3% in 2043. In contrast, under the optimistic scenario, agriculture is projected to contribute 10.1% to GDP by 2043, with an increase in crop production of 665.9 million metric tons. The reliance on imports is also expected to decrease to 4.83% of total demand (optimistic scenario) instead of 34.58% (future scenario based on current data), leading to a reduction in the value of agricultural product imports by USD 401.9 billion by 2043.

4. 3 Carbon Emissions Scenarios:

Carbon emissions in Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to rise to 606 million tons by 2043, up from 246 million tons in 2019, primarily due to ongoing economic and population growth in all countries in the region.

Among the various scenarios, the Free Trade scenario is expected to be the most carbon-intensive, contributing 649 million tons of carbon by 2043. This scenario assumes the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by 2034, with increased exports, improved productivity, and enhanced trade and economic freedom.

In contrast, the Demographic Change scenario is expected to result in slightly lower emissions than the future path based on historical data, reaching 599 million tons by 2043. The Demographic Change scenario assumes an increased and accelerated demographic dividend through reasonable reductions in the burden of infectious diseases among children under five, a decrease in maternal mortality, and increased access to modern contraception^[62]..

Global temperatures have risen by 1.1°C since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 0.2°C per decade in recent decades, and are expected to continue rising. Changing rainfall patterns will impact water availability, agriculture, ecosystems, and human health. By 2030, climate change could push an additional 100 million people into poverty, primarily due to its impacts on agriculture and food security.

Furthermore, the risks associated with drought over the past 50 years have led to the loss of more than half a million lives and economic damages exceeding USD 70 billion in Africa. Climate change is causing sea levels to rise through thermal expansion and glacier melting, posing significant risks such as coastal flooding, saltwater intrusion, and land loss, especially in densely populated areas.

If climate change is not prioritized, it is expected that 216 million people will be displaced from their homes by 2050, with internal migration hotspots emerging as early as 2030 and spreading and intensifying thereafter. ^[63]

Despite the growing interest in carbon trading, this trade faces several challenges, including:

• The issue of carbon credit credibility: Poor-quality credits are prevalent, and markets lack transparency, raising doubts about their actual ability to reduce emissions.
• Market fragmentation and inconsistency: Different countries treat carbon credits differently, leading to variations in tax and accounting treatments.
• A shortage of carbon credits due to insufficient investments in emission-reducing projects.
• A shortage of intermediaries: The market suffers from a lack of intermediaries, limiting secondary market activity.

Despite these challenges, carbon trading is considered a necessary tool to achieve emission reduction targets and a sustainable future. If transparency and integrity standards are adhered to, carbon trading can help accelerate the transition to net-zero carbon emissions by setting an effective carbon price and creating an economic incentive to reduce emissions. ^[64]

It is crucial for African countries to enhance their strategies to address climate change, which requires a dual approach focusing on adapting to the direct impacts of climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate future effects. Therefore, developing early warning systems and enhancing climate information services will be essential in preparing for and responding to these environmental challenges.

International cooperation is a critical element in supporting African countries, whether through financial or technological support, helping to strengthen adaptive capacities and implement sustainable practices at the local and national levels.

According to a report by the World Meteorological Organization, 2023 was the warmest year on record, raising concerns about the acceleration of climate change. This new climate reality has significant impacts on the global environment and human populations, with Africa being among the most affected regions.

In light of these critical conditions, 2023 serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need to address climate change. For Africa, the time to act is now, as proactive measures and international support are essential to protect its future. The global community must recognize the seriousness of the situation and come together to support those most vulnerable to the effects of global warming. ^[65]

4. 4 Political Scenarios
5. Wars and major conflicts that impact the world and Africa, exacerbating food insecurity-related instability

The current global events are highly alarming, and will possibly have negative consequences on food security for the world as a whole, exacerbating the crisis in Africa, which already has a severe food security crisis, as previously shown in the study.

This has been evident in the great power competition involving the US, Russia and China, which have led to a drive to expand influence across the world, primarily in Africa; and the potential major wars, including a direct conflict between Iran and Israel after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Moreover, the disruption of maritime shipping and international sea lanes, particularly in the Red Sea and Suez Canal, has negatively impacted supply chains.

The key potential global conflicts that could affect international security, including food security, include:

1. Direct Conflict between Iran and Israel, and US intervention, against the backdrop of Gaza war:

Amid the ongoing Israeli war in Gaza, fears have been growing over the expansion of the war into a regional or global war in the case of a direct confrontation between Iran and the US. Although most international assessments suggest that this war, if happened, will not be in any party’s interest, and is not expected due to its heavy costs, the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh a top leader of Hamas, in Tehran, while he was attending the inauguration of Iran’s new president, was a major escalation, as Iran blamed Israel for the assassination operation and vowed revenge.[66]

According to Fitch Ratings economic projections, a large-scale war involving Israel and the US on one side, and Iran and its allies, including Hezbollah, on the other will raise oil prices to around $150 – $200 per barrel. Furthermore, the war will severely affect global markets, resulting in a 30% – 50% decline in stock prices, a rise in gold prices to record highs, a decline in the global GDP by 2% – 3%, and a sharp decrease in world production. The increase in oil and energy prices will lead to a crisis in the balance of payments in fragile economies, most notably in the African states.[67]

This will certainly be a catastrophic scenario for food security in Africa, as inflation and food prices will soar. Moreover, supply chains disruptions could be more detrimental than the Russia-Ukraine war.

2. The ongoing US-China trade war and Taiwan Crisis escalation

Over the past few years, the trade war between the US and China has been casting its shadows on the global economy. Additionally, there are concerns that the heightened tensions between China and Taiwan could lead to a military confrontation between both sides, in the light of the US support for Taiwan.

Fears are also growing over the implications of these tensions on the trade movement in the Taiwan Strait, one of the world’s busiest shipping routes. The Taiwan Strait is a major route for ships moving from China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to the West and the US. In 2022, half of the world’s container fleet passed through the Taiwan Strait. Any traffic disturbance could cause a major shake to the global economy, leading to more delays in the already strained supply chains and impacting the semiconductor industry.[68]

The US military and political interest in Taiwan can be attributed to Washington’s desire to have a political footprint in Asia in general, and East Asia in particular, to help in undermining Beijing’s efforts to control this region economically and politically. Hence, it is part of the trade and geopolitical war between the US and China.

In the case of a direct conflict between China and US-backed Taiwan, the world will witness an unprecedented economic crisis, given China’s economic power. The crisis will cause a substantial increase in the prices of staple goods, including wheat, rice and oil. This in turn will lead to an increase in inflation levels worldwide, causing a severe crisis for the African nations and their food security.[69]

3. Rise in anti-immigrant sentiment in the West

In recent years, there has been a surge in anti-immigrant hostility, with the rise of far-right parties to power in Europe and the election of Donald Trump as president of the US.

Now, with the possible return of Trump to the White House and the recent riots and anti-immigrant violence in the UK, the situation is getting more complicated. This comes after the Rishi Sunak government enacted a law that allows the deportation of illegal immigrants to Rwanda.[70] Even though the current British government, led by Keir Starmer, scrapped the plan, the violence in the UK[71] and the hostility against immigrants are dangerous indicators for the future of immigrants and refugees in Western states. This could drive them to return to their home countries in Africa, further straining resources and adding more negative repercussions on Africa’s food security.

All these factors highlight the risks facing African people and their food security, as a result of world crises, which could lead to a significant increase in the number of hungry people across the continent.

1. Scenario of a world heading towards more division:

The transformations that exist in the world are not limited to grave conflicts only, but there are other transformations related to changes in the nature of the global system, including:

    1- A multipolar world… and the competition that follows between international powers:

What has been happening in the world in the last decade refers that there is a change related to the nature of the global system, which will no longer remain unipolar, with the United States alone in control. Rather, China and Russia have emerged and are seeking to create a multipolar world. This is a major reason for the trading war between the United States and China, and also one of the reasons behind the Russian war against Ukraine.

Taking a look at the African continent, it becomes crystal clear that it has become an arena of competition as a zone of influence for major powers, and the best example of that is the transformations in the West African region, as Russia was able to make France lose its historical influence in this region and replace it, and it is still seeking to create a ground for itself in other countries; consequently, these transformations will result in new conflicts and other African countries may witness military coups or wars due to this competition, and that will lead to new problems in food security for citizens.

2- The world heading towards localism and the decline of the phenomenon of globalization

The world is facing a wave of introversion, or a retreat of the path of globalization, which has been exposed to several setbacks over the past few years, as the Corona virus (COVID 19) pandemic led to a decrease in travelling movement and even its ban, and the disturbance of the global supply chains, and also the shipping processes were disrupted for many months; due to the closures during the pandemic. American companies have enhanced their local production capacity and expanded domestically, or redirected manufacturing to the homeland in what is known as (regionalization), and the trading conflicts between the United States of America and China have highlighted the risks of concentrating production in one place.

When protectionist policies emerged – which are a set of rules, procedures and measures that directly or indirectly restrict the flow of international trade across a country’s borders to achieve certain economic goals. In the context of the escalating competition between the United States and China, the United States sought to maintain its technological superiority over other economic powers, and sought to maintain as much leadership as possible in the industry of chips, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, biotechnology and clean energy. To achieve this goal, the United States not only attracted experts in these fields and promoted innovation, but also sought to curb technological progress in countries such as China and Russia.[72]

Moreover, the United States and China have taken many procedures and policies against each other, including imposing many sanctions targeting officials, companies, imports and exports. Since the United States was once the world’s leading advocate of free trade and open economies, its adoption of protectionist policies and imposition of trade barriers will push other countries to simulate its approach. The result of this is increasing obstacles to international trade and investment at a time when both are already in recession. The European Union has also indicated its intention to adopt protectionist policies in the field of industry, similar to the United States.[73]

This was clearly demonstrated in the issue of distributing Corona vaccines, as major countries took the largest share of them, without considering the fairness of distribution or the needs of developing countries. Therefore, increasing protectionist policies can have a clear impact on food security in Africa; because if any of the previous crisis scenarios occur, developed countries will put the interests of their citizens and their food needs before the needs of African and developing countries, which means more crises.

Conclusion

In light of the above, the paper proposes different pathways to mitigate food crises as follows:

• In the event of a reduction in global interest rates and a decline in inflation and global prices, there will be an opportunity for African countries suffering from famine and escalating debt to catch their breath. However, they must understand that this is a temporary situation, and these countries should strive to achieve self-sufficiency as much as possible by reallocating the cultivation of grains and essential nutrients and avoiding export commodities.
• Providing technical and financial aid and assistance to farmers, and encouraging them to engage in agricultural work and production.
• Regularizing the status of farmers and ensuring their ownership of the land.
• Moving forward with the exchange or barter of goods in international trade.
• Benefiting from forest leasing, known as carbon compensation, which represents newly generated cash revenues for African countries that they should exploit to maximize their agricultural production, incorporate smart technology, and develop early warning systems to avoid sudden climate changes as much as possible.
• Preserving forests and raising awareness of their importance.
• Public awareness is essential to enhance the understanding and support of the public and stakeholders for climate change policies and actions. By taking action on climate change, African economies can not only protect themselves from its harmful effects but also seize opportunities for green growth and prosperity.
• International cooperation is essential, especially since all indicators suggest an expected increase in displaced persons. In light of the expected population growth and the rising Western right-wing sentiment against immigrants, Western societies must extend a helping hand to African countries, whether in the form of developing early warning systems, providing funding and grants for climate adaptation, or in the form of reducing carbon emissions and curbing global warming.
• Strengthening the infrastructure and food supply chain: by improving the transport and storage infrastructure to reduce food losses and improve the distribution of food products.
• Improving food markets: by enhancing market access and strengthening marketing systems for agricultural products to improve farmers ‘ incomes and ensure that food reaches markets effectively.
• Promote investments in sectors that the region needs to invest in, not according to the interests of the investor, focusing on increasing the value added to exports instead of crude exports.
• Combating poverty and promoting social sustainability: through the implementation of food assistance programs for vulnerable groups and low-income families to ensure access to adequate food. In addition to providing cash support to poor families to improve their ability to buy food and improve the standard of living.
• The international community, and particularly the developed partners, should fulfill their commitments regarding African countries, in order to reduce the impact of the food insecurity crisis on them.
• It is necessary for the international and regional organizations to play an effective role in preventing the expansion of conflicts in Africa. Here comes the role of the early warning mechanism in the African Union Peace and Security Council, as well as supporting peacekeeping forces deployed in Africa; Because the outbreak of new conflicts or the expansion of current crises means a new burden on Africa’s resources and an increase in its food crisis.
• The mechanism for the peaceful transfer of power in African countries must remain through the ballot box as a key step towards turning a new page in the transition process and ending institutional division at the state level, not through unconstitutional changes such as coups, to avoid more political chaos and unrest.
• African countries must put the interests of their people before foreign powers and deal with them on the basis of equality.
• Economic sanctions imposed on some countries should not increase the suffering of citizens, especially women and children, or prevent humanitarian aid from reaching them.

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[9] World Bank Group, April 2024, Africa’s Pulse: An Analysis of Issues Shaping Africa’s Economic Future, Volume 29.

[10] Our World in Data, Available at: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/food-expenditure-share-gdp?tab=table&time=2022, Accessed on: 30 July 2024.

[11] Wudil, A. H., Usman, M., Rosak-Szyrocka, J., Pilař, L., & Boye, M. (2022). Reversing years for global food security: A review of the food security situation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). International Journal of environmental research and Public Health, 19(22), 14836.‏

[12] Okou, C., Spray, J. A., & Unsal, M. F. D. (2022). Staple food prices in sub-Saharan Africa: An empirical assessment. International Monetary Fund, Available at: https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/2022/English/wpiea2022135-print-pdf.ashx

[13] World Bank Group, April 2024, Africa’s Pulse: An Analysis of Issues Shaping Africa’s Economic Future, Volume 29.

[14] World Bank Blogs, March 2023, Slowing debt accumulation, growing risks: Unveiling the complexities of Sub-Saharan Africa’s debt burdens, Available at: https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/slowing-debt-accumulation-growing-risks-unveiling-complexities-sub-saharan-africas-debt

[15] Bjornlund, V., Bjornlund, H., & van Rooyen, A. (2022). Why food insecurity persists in sub-Saharan Africa: A review of existing evidence. Food Security, 14(4), 845-864. Available at: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12571-022-01256-1

[16] IMF. (2022). Policy Space Index: Short-Term Response to a Catastrophic Event, Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2022/06/17/Policy-Space-Index-Short-Term-Response-

[17] ILO. (2020). Social Protection Spotlight. Available at: https://www.social-protection.org/gimi/Media.action;jsessionid=ZytxDizljoSr07Dwm2bxLpj_ialtS3-kpIPvYxoToJNecmS2vYC8!-765179005?id=17737

[18] “How does climate change affect the economies of African countries?”, Available at:

https://shorturl.at/87Wk7  access in 03/ 08 /2024

[19] Zaher Hesham, “Africa faces the greatest risks from climate change despite contributing the least to its creation”, Available at: https://shorturl.at/uKZ1h

[20] Abdulazeez Hudu Wudil & others, “Reversing Years for Global Food Security: A Review of the Food Security Situation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)”, International Journal of Environment Research & Public Health, 11 Nov. 2022. Available at: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/22/14836

[21] Mona abd el Fatth: “Hunger is a permanent visitor to the countries of the Horn of Africa”, available at: https://shorturl.at/HBhuo

[22] “In Southern Africa, El Niño drought leaves a trail of scorched harvests and hunger”, Climate change, Africa Renewal, Available at: https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/may-2024/southern-africa-el-ni%C3%B1o-drought-leaves-trail-scorched-harvests-and-hunger

[23] “Forty Dead as Heavy Rainfall Displaces Thousands in Kenya, Somalia”, available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/en/news/thp/2023-11-06/30-people-dead-in-kenya-and-somalia-as-heavy-rains-and-flash-floods-displace-thousands?sref=knXkNmGC#xj4y7vzkg

[24] “In Southern Africa, El Niño drought leaves a trail of scorched harvests and hunger”, Ibid

[25] Mumbi Gutai & others: “Chocolate Prices Are Rising Everywhere as Cocoa Rots in West Africa”, available at:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-12-01/climate-change-in-ivory-coast-and-ghana-makes-chocolate-expensive-everywhere?sref=knXkNmGC

[26] Elizabeth Mrema: “How ‘Generation Restoration’ can safeguard Africa’s land and livelihoods”, available at:https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/june-2024/how-%E2%80%98generation-restoration%E2%80%99-can-safeguard-africa%E2%80%99s-land-and-livelihoods

[27] Simon Jessop & others: “Development bank head at COP28 urges African exemption from EU carbon tax”, available at:https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/development-bank-head-cop28-urges-african-exemption-eu-carbon-tax-2023-12-06/

[28] University of Notre Dame, Available at: https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/

[29]“Statement: Let’s put an end to the food crisis”, available at: https://shorturl.at/1Fbwz

“The global food crisis and proposals to get out of it”, available at:

https://tinyurl.com/4txy9j9h

“Food crisis in Africa”. available at: https://tinyurl.com/3kayazas

[30] Abdulazeez Hudu Wudil & others, Ibid

[31]“Double Whammy: Zimbabwe Farmers Struggle Against Illegal Mining and Climate Change”, https://www.africa.com/double-whammy-zimbabwe-farmers-struggle-against-illegal-mining-and-climate-change/

[32] “TACKLING INEQUALITY TO REVITALIZE GROWTH AND REDUCE POVERTY IN AFRICA”,

 AN ANALYSIS OF ISSUES SHAPING AFRICA’S ECONOMIC FUTURE, Africa’s Plus, VOLUME 29,  APRIL 2024

[33] Food crisis in Africa, Ibid

[34] Population growth (annual %) – Sub-Saharan Africa, available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?locations=ZG

[35] Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS), Unresolved Conflicts Continue to Drive Africa’s Food Crisis, (Washington: United States Department of Defense, 16 October, 2023)

https://africacenter.org/spotlight/unresolved-conflicts-continue-to-drive-africas-food-crisis/#:~:text=An%20estimated%2082%20percent%20of,driver%20of%20Africa’s%20food%20crisis

[36]  Idem.

[37]  Alex Vines, Understanding Africa’s Coups (Washington, D.C: The Georgetown Journal of International Affairs – GJIA, April 13, 2024)

https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2024/04/13/understanding-africas-coups/

[38] Africa Defense Forum (ADF) magazine, DRC, South Sudan Recorded Largest Military Spending Increase in 2023, (USA: U.S. Africa Command, May 21, 2024)

https://adf-magazine.com/2024/05/drc-south-sudan-recorded-largest-military-spending-increase-in-2023/

[39] Idem.

[40]  Amani Africa, Food security and conflict in Africa, Published on 9 May 2022

https://amaniafrica-et.org/food-security-and-conflict-in-africa/

[41] Bull, Alister. (July 2024). Understanding Nigeria’s Currency Slump, and What Happens Next, Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-30/why-nigeria-s-naira-currency-ngn-usd-slumped-and-why-it-matters, Accessed on 6 August 2024.

[42]CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: NIGERIA, https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/2021-07/15918-WB_Nigeria%20Country%20Profile-WEB.pdf

[43] Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS), Unresolved Conflicts Continue to Drive Africa’s Food Crisis, Op.cit.

[44] World Bank, The World Bank in the Republic of Congo, Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/congo/overview

[45] IMF. (April 2024). Regional Economic Outlook: Sub- Saharan Africa.

[46]  The United Nations office for South- South Cooperation website, IBSA Fund: Addressing Food Security in the Republic of Congo, published on 31 January, 2024

https://unsouthsouth.org/2024/01/31/ibsa-fund-addressing-food-security-in-the-republic-of-congo/

[47] DIVERSIFYING CONGO’S ECONOMY: MAKING THE MOST OF CLIMATE CHANGE, Worldbank Group, 2023, Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/0cd4b1e0-963a-4004-9a6f-f43919700d52/content

[48]African Development Bank Group. Zimbabwe Economic Outlook. Available at: https://www.afdb.org/en/countries/southern-africa/zimbabwe/zimbabwe-economic-outlook, Accessed on 06 August 2024.

[49] Ibid.

[50] IMF. (April 2024). Regional Economic Outlook: Sub- Saharan Africa.

[51]CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: ZIMBABWE, https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/2021-05/14956-WB_Zimbabwe%20Country%20Profile-WEB%20%281%29.pdf

[52] African Development Bank Group. (2024). Sudan Economic Outlook, Available at: https://www.afdb.org/en/countries/east-africa/sudan/sudan-economic-outlook

[53] https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/countrys/udan

[54] United Nations website, “UN warns: window to avert famine in Sudan is closing fast,” published May 15, 2024, https://tinyurl.com/ywjrvuyb

[55] World Development Indicators.

[56] Unicef, Country Office Annual Report 2023: Ethiopia, Available at: https://www.unicef.org/media/152246/file/Ethiopia-2023-COAR.pdf

[57]CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: ETHIOPIA, World bank, Available at: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/2021-05/15463A-WB_Ethiopia%20Country%20Profile-WEB.pdf

[58] David Herbling, “East Africa Braces for Drought After Floods That Killed Hundreds”, available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-29/east-africa-braces-for-drought-after-floods-that-killed-hundreds

[59] The United Nations website, Ethiopia: More than 350,000 people in famine phase in Tigray region and surrounding areas, published on 10 June 2021, link: https://tinyurl.com/yuww8z64

[60] Jakkie, Cilliers. (2024). Africa in the World: Thematic Futures, Available at: https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/18-africa-in-the-world/

[61] Interregional for Strategic Analysis. Expected trends for the future of African debt in 2024.

[62]Jakkie, Cilliers. (2024). Africa in the World: Thematic Futures, Available at: https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/18-africa-in-the-world/

[63] Ebaide Queen Omiunu,  “OP-ED | Analyzing the Impact of Climate Change on Developing Economies”, available at: https://www.africannewspage.net/2023/10/op-ed-analysing-the-impact-of-climate-change-on-developing-economies-by-ebaide-queen-omiunu/?dicbo=v2-llt2pV2&?

[64] Soheir el sherbiny: “Will Carbon Trading Succeed in Mitigating Climate Change?”, available at: Reducing Emissions: (interregional.com)

[65] “A Wake-Up Call for Climate Action in Africa”, available at: https://www.africa.com/a-wake-up-call-for-climate-action-in-africa/

[66] Reuters, Iran says Hamas leader Haniyeh was killed by short-range projectile, Published on 3 August 2024,  https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-hamas-leader-haniyeh-was-killed-by-short-range-projectile-2024-08-03/

[67]Fitch Solutions, Global Scenarios And Implications Of The MENA Conflict, Published on 23 Oct, 2023, https://www.fitchsolutions.com/bmi/country-risk/global-scenarios-and-implications-mena-conflict-23-10-2023

[68]Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC) – Egyptian Cabinet, What if conflict breaks out between China and Taiwan?,  Published on May 2023, p.14. available at: https://tinyurl.com/yc528nya

[69] Ibid, p.41

[70] BBC, What is the UK’s plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda?, Published on 13 June 2024,

https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-61782866

[71] Larry Elliott, The violence was shocking but not surprising: Britain’s economy makes it ripe for far-right thuggery, Published on 8 Aug 2024,

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/aug/08/labour-riots-violence-economic-social-factors

[72] Mahmoud Khalifa, Implications of Protectionist Policies and Trade Barriers on the Path of Globalization, Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC) – Egyptian Cabinet, Published on,  24 January, 2023,  https://www.idsc.gov.eg/Article/details/7835