Evaluation of the performance of intra-trade in the Nile Basin countries

Prepared by the researcher :  Dr. Salwa Hegazy, Doctor of Philosophy in Applied Statistics and Econometrics, African Economics Researcher, Cairo University.

Democratic Arab Center

Journal of Afro-Asian Studies : Sixteenth Issue – February 2023

A Periodical International Journal published by the “Democratic Arab Center” Germany – Berlin.

https://democraticac.de/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Journal-of-Afro-Asian-Studies-Sixteenth-Issue-%E2%80%93-February-2023.pdf

Abstract

The study discusses evaluating the performance of intra-trade between the Nile Basin countries through several items, namely; the trade agreements that facilitate the movement of foreign trade and support bonds of economic cooperation among these countries in various sectors. These have been explored, including agricultural and industrial cooperation, besides cooperation in the fields of energy and infrastructure. Economic initiatives and achievements are presented, especially projects that have been already implemented. This is in addition to the projection of the growth of the economies of a number of countries, especially Egypt, Kenya, Tanzania and Rwanda. Further, there is an interest in exports, services sectors, completing the development of infrastructure, increasing production capacity, water resources, dams and irrigation projects, completing structural reforms, and increasing private sector investment to promote the economies of these nations.

Introduction

The Nile Basin countries seek to develop economic relations and benefit from regional economic integration and the consequent activation of the movement of foreign trade, in addition to increasing exports and opening new export markets, which lead to achieving high growth rates and the provision of foreign exchange needs, which in turn contribute to reducing the sustainable deficit in the commercial balance.

The study aims to evaluate the performance of the intra-Nile Basin trade, considering it a large consumer market, in addition to being a national and strategic dimension for Egypt

The study discusses the following axes:

1. First: Trade agreements for the Nile Basin countries
2. Second: Economic initiatives and achievements
3. Third: The development of inter-trade in the Nile Basin countries
4. Fourth: Challenges and future prospects
5. Fifth: Results and recommendations

First: Trade agreements for the Nile Basin countries

The Nile Basin countries seek to achieve economic growth and integration in the presence of many cooperation agreements that facilitate the movement of foreign trade and support the economic cooperation between countries in various sectors, including agricultural and industrial cooperation and energy. In the following section, the Trade agreements for the Nile Basin countries are highlighted.

Egypt and 43 African countries signed an agreement of launching the African Continental Free Trade Area in March 2018, including the Nile Basin countries with the exception of Tanzania and South Sudan, with the aim of facilitating the intra-regional trade movement in temporal phases , increasing the volume of trade exchange and removing customs barriers. This agreement represents a great opportunity for the Egyptian products to be present in African markets with the possibility of importing the raw materials needed by the local industry from Africa, in addition to other regional agreements, sending trade missions to Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, participating in many specialized exhibitions and the possibility of opening new markets for exports.

Egypt and Kenya signed a memorandum of understanding in March 2015 regarding the establishment of a joint model farm. Kenya is considered the largest economy in East Africa, especially after the new discoveries of oil, gas and coal in 2012 as engines of economic growth.  Kenya continues to support regional integration of East African countries as a member of the (EAC) consortium and the Preferential Trade Organization for Eastern and Southern Africa (PTA) and a founding member of (COMESA) since 1994. It also joined the CEN-SAD in 2008.

Burundi is a member of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) and of the Preferential Trade Organization for Eastern and Southern Africa. Further, it joined (COMESA) in 2004 in addition to its membership in (EAC), in 2009. The trade representatives in the United States achieved the establishment of a new trade and investment partnership with the East African Community countries, including Burundi.

Eritrea is considered a member of the (PTA) organization and a founding member of the (COMESA) grouping since 1994, in addition to its accession to the CEN-SAD in 1999, which provides an opportunity for its exports to penetrate the African markets. Despite the country’s enjoyment of natural agricultural and extractive wealth, we note that the volume of foreign trade, as well as the growth rates, is small.

The population of Eritrea is 3.6 million people, and 77.4% of the population works in agriculture. The value of exports is $ 500.025 million, while the imports amount approximately to $ 389.04 million by the end of 2021^[1]

Ethiopia is a member of the (PTA) organization and a member of (COMESA) since 1994 and it depends on a limited number of raw unprocessed agricultural materials and occupies the largest share of the total exports of Ethiopia. Therefore, coffee, tea and spices as commodities control the first list of exports on which the outcome of exports depends. This is in addition to another list of commodities consisting of trees, plants, vegetables, and fruits. Thus exports are dominated by one commodity group or list.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo has signed several bilateral and multilateral trade agreements with more than 50 countries and belongs to many international and regional trade organizations.

It also signed with Egypt three memoranda of understanding for cooperation in the fields of health, environment and energy in 2015. A joint statement was issued regarding the Egyptian participation in the third and fourth stages of the Inga Dam project in February 2016, and the Egyptian Initiative for the Development of the Nile Basin Countries contributed to the implementation of several projects in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including Establishing a joint model farm, a number of power plants and a medical center, and contributed to the implementation of several projects in the fields of agriculture, health, industry and energy in Burundi, Eritrea and Ethiopia.

Tanzania is a founding member of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), Preferential Trade Organization for Eastern and Southern Africa (PTA), the (EAC) Community. Tanzania enjoys a strategic geographic location as well as natural resources and the tremendous botanical wealth and livestock, making it an exporter of livestock in Africa.

Among the means of cooperation is the opening of the first stage of the solar power plant in the joint Egyptian-Tanzanian farm, and the follow-up of the implementation of the “Stiegler’s Gorge hydroelectric dam” in Tanzania.

Rwanda is in the East African Community (EAC) until 2007, a member of the (PTA) organization, has joined (COMESA) in 2004 and has achieved rapid development gains in the aftermath of the 1994 genocide, seeks to develop agricultural production, encourages investment and develops foreign trade as part of the strategy to deepen regional integration, and economic cooperation within the East African region.

In terms of trade and regional integration, it is concerned with increasing exports and opening new markets for the Rwandan product as a powerful tool to stimulate economic growth and raise living standards within the framework of the Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS-II). External imbalances have decreased and the good performance of agriculture helped support economic growth and contributed to Food price support in general.

The removal of 8 non-tariff barriers has increased trade between Rwanda and the rest of the East African Community (EAC) and has strengthened trade with Uganda and Tanzania, and has contributed to facilitating procedures for the purchase of electrical equipment, transformers and cables to reduce the costs of importing equipment while ensuring its quality in support of the Made in Rwanda program. This encourages the purchase of goods and services from local and foreign companies located in Rwanda. Three new companies have been established to manufacture clothing.

Sudan is a member of the (PTA) organization, in addition to its membership in the (COMESA) grouping. It is noteworthy that its population reached 41.91 million by the end of 2019 and the GDP reached 129,391 million dollars and the per capita share of 2,730,3016 dollars in 2017, 2018, respectively, while the percentage of workers in the agricultural sector is 8% and the inflation rate is 16% in 2019.

With the beginning of 2021, Sudan faced many challenges related to the public budget and began with a structural defect, as the current inflation rate exceeded 275%. To remedy this imbalance, production must be increased, and the gross domestic product (GDP) must be increased by supporting local investments in the sectors of agriculture, livestock and manufacturing industries such as oils, leather, and packaging with emphasis on the added value of all sectors, and Sudan aspires to proceed forward towards this reform.

South Sudan,The population of South Sudan is 12.9 million, and by the end of 2018, the gross domestic product (GDP) was 4,565 million dollars and per capita $ 515. The percentage of workers in the agricultural sector was 75% in 2019 and the percentage remained stable in 2020.

South Sudan joined the East African Community (EAC) in March 2016, and this membership gives the country the opportunity for economic integration with neighboring countries and access to regional and global markets due to its landlocked geographical location. The country is also a new member of the African Trade Insurance Agency and a member of the African Development Bank in May 2012.

The bank is financing three ongoing projects with a total investment of about $ 17.8 million and gives priority to building institutional capacities and managing public finances with the adoption of a comprehensive plan for establishing and developing infrastructure (IAP), which affects the movement of local and regional trade and opening new markets

In addition to the Sudanese Development Initiative (SDI), priority is given to projects, transformational programs and building the economy, with an emphasis on the importance of revenues, services and creating an investment climate. In addition to the agricultural sector support project and the drought support program in the Horn of Africa, the project aiming to mobilize non-oil revenues, to provide the necessary support, to enhance sustainability and to improve economic growth by increasing domestic resource mobilization is promoted.

In a report prepared by the African Institute for Security Studies in March 2021, it is affirmed that the African Union headed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo will focus in the next phase on what is related to the African Continental Free Trade Area and economic integration, and Agenda 2063 as well as the external partnerships of the African Union such as the partnership with the European Union and giving priority to investment in the dam project. The large “Inga” hydroelectric power generation on the Congo River, and the dam, in its current condition, could help meet 40% of the electricity demand on the African continent.

Uganda is a founding member of the East African Community (EAC), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and Preferential Trade Organization for Eastern and Southern Africa (PTA) and the United States signed Trade and Investment Agreements (TIFA) with the East African Community (EAC) in 2008, and with (COMESA) in 2001.  The removal of 8 non-tariff barriers led to an increase in trade between Uganda and the countries of the (EAC) group, and also to boost trade with (COMESA) countries.

Second: Economic initiatives and achievements of the Nile Basin countries

Within the framework of inter-cooperation and the achievement economic development among the countries of the Nile Basin, there have been many achievements and inter-projects that have been implemented on the ground, especially what was presented by the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation during the year 2020, and it has implemented many projects and they are still continuing according to what follows:

• Executing the Egyptian-Ugandan project for controlling water weeds in the Great Lakes. Four phases have been completed, and the fifth phase is currently being implemented.
• Establishing 2 river berths in the Bahr El Ghazal Basin, Southern Sudan.
• Providing technical support for the establishment of a center for forecasting floods and studying climate change in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and preparations are being made to open the center in the capital, Kinshasa, in 2021.
• A flood risk prevention project in western Uganda is initiated, and the second phase is currently being implemented.
• Several wells and underground drinking water stations have been drilled, including 180 wells in Kenya, 30 wells in Tanzania, 10 wells in Sudan, 6 wells in South Sudan, and 75 in Uganda.
• Contributing to the preparation of technical and economic feasibility studies for projects to construct multi-purpose dams to provide electricity and drinking water, studies for the “Wau Dam” project in southern Sudan have been completed.
• Providing many training courses to prepare technical cadres, and 100 trainees are trained annually from Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Eritrea, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and providing scholarships for students in Egyptian universities, especially postgraduate students.

The economic achievements made under Egypt’s leadership of the African Union 2019 that bear fruit in the coming years, the most important of which is the launch of the operational phase of the African Free Trade Zone that was held in Niger and signed by 54 countries, and the entry into force of the agreement on May 30, 2019, and the agreement targets 2 billion people, 3 trillion Dollars.

It also aims to remove trade barriers to intra-African trade movement, gradually abolishes customs tariffs between countries, work to establish a unified African market for goods and services, establish the African Customs Union, and apply unified customs tariffs towards imports of the African continent from abroad, which positively affects sustainable development in addition to attracting Foreign investments in several sectors, taking into account the mechanisms of the World Trade Organization and regional and economic blocs aimed at establishing areas for free trade exchange.

• The Economic Forum for Africa in November 2019, as Egypt hosted the forum’s activities and focused on the role of the private sector, achieving comprehensive and sustainable development, and promoting investment opportunities in the areas of infrastructure, digital transformation and renewable energy, with the continued financing of investment in human capital through training, skills development and attention to educational missions.
• The Economic Forum for Africa focused on many areas, such as agriculture, with the aim of developing the services provided to increase the agricultural area and to improve the production of agricultural crops while paying attention to cash crops, as well as providing technology to manage water resources and reduce desertification while maintaining the improvement of soil quality and quality through the establishment of an agricultural development fund.
• The Economic Forum for Africa also focused on the industrial sector and gave high priority to local manufacturing, emphasizing the idea of “Made in Africa”. The forum also focused on developing the health sector, and education.
• The African Cities Conference, a locomotive for sustainable development, June 2019, is concerned with cooperation with African countries in the field of maritime and land transport. Among the most important projects is the navigation link plans between Lake Victoria, the Mediterranean and the “Cairo-Cape Town” road, the longest project to link the countries of the North and the South of the continent, linking Egypt to South Africa, with a length of 11,000 km, and passing through 9 countries from north to south, and it will affect the activity of trade exchange and investment and the consequent economic growth. Indeed, Egypt has started implementing the first phase of the project in 2020.

The “Alexandria-Victoria” water connection project aims to bring about a regional renaissance for the countries of the Nile Basin. It includes the construction of riverbeds, railways and land roads, and provides networks for the Internet and logistical centers, to stimulate trade exchange and consolidate economic relations between countries.

• Electrical interconnection projects between the Nile Basin countries aims to develop the electricity sector, to improve the commercial and financial operations of the sector in addition to supporting and developing the level of energy production. Three regional energy trade institutions have already been established, the most important of which is the International Electricity Association in the Great Lakes and the regional economic organizations in the east Africa, with the aim of supporting the energy and electricity sector among the Nile Basin countries.

The signing of the founding agreement for the tripartite free trade zone on the African continent (TFTA) in Sharm El-Sheikh in 2015 in Egypt, which represents an African power that together can meet the challenges of external competition with 26 African countries, and we find Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi from the member states of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa grouping, (COMESA), and the East African Community (EAC).

• The “Nile Basin Initiative” was established in 2000 in Tanzania and included all countries of the Nile Basin before the secession of southern Sudan. Its main goal was to support and to achieve regional cooperation, to enhance economic integration and to develop the water resources of the Nile Basin while ensuring the efficiency of its management and optimal use of resources. Egypt has intensified its efforts towards the continent by stimulating cooperation in all fields and hosting a number of conferences and forums concerned with investment, economy and security.
• The establishment of the International Forum for the Nile Basin, which represents civil society organizations in the Nile Basin countries with the aim of following up the implementation of the projects and programs of the Nile Basin Initiative that was established in 2000 and overcoming the difficulties facing the implementation process.
• Egypt has constructed many dams to harvest rainwater and has participated in preparing the necessary studies for projects to construct multi-purpose dams with the aim of providing electrical energy in addition to underground water stations to provide clean drinking water in many remote areas far from water bodies. Indeed, solar energy technology has been used in a large number of groundwater wells, especially Tanzania. Several projects have been implemented to purify waterways and protect against the dangers of floods. Many fish farms and river marinas have been established in several countries of the Nile Basin.

Third: the development of inter-trade in the Nile Basin countries

We deal with the performance of intra-trade of some Nile Basin countries, which occupy the advanced positions and top the list in economic performance, as inter-trade and inter-cooperation in various fields are of great importance to the Nile Basin countries and many countries are distinguished as effective pivotal countries and as one of the most important trading partners.

The human resource is considered pivotal economic wealth that affects the inter-cooperation of the Nile Basin countries, as the population of the Nile Basin countries is 572.4 million people^[2], most of them work in agriculture, In Kenya 90.2% of the total population works in agriculture, followed by Burundi, Eritrea, and Tanzania with 78%, 77.4% and 77.3%, respectively.

Table 1: GDP and Population for the Nile Basin countries

Source: (1) World Population, at: http://www.worldometers.info,in Nov,2022.

(2) trading economics, at: https://tradingeconomics.com/matrix

The economy of the Nile Basin countries is based on commercial economic relations, whose central pillars are agricultural crops and primary raw materials in their exports, which are of priority and represent the largest part of the gross domestic product (GDP). This is in addition to the dependence of the Nile Basin countries economy on raw minerals as extractive natural wealth whose imports depend on what provides their needs of consumer, food and capital goods from abroad. This makes these countries vulnerable to both global economic fluctuations and negative consequence on the national economy in all its sectors.

Kenya controls intra-regional exports to the Nile Basin countries with a value of 19882.8 million dollars during the period from (2015-2019), equivalent to 37.7%, followed by Egypt, Uganda and Tanzania, which are countries that occupy the advanced centers of intra-regional exports, equivalent to 17.90%, 17.80% and 13.90%, respectively. Fig. No. 1 and No. 2 illustrate this:

Figure No (1)

Total intra-regional exports of the Nile Basin countries, (2015-2019)

in million dollars

Source: Prepared by the researcher using data, at:

https://www.trademap.org/Product,in Dec, 2021.

Figure No (2)

The total intra-Nile imports of the Nile Basin countries (2015-2019)

in million dollars

 Source: Prepared by the researcher using data, at:

 https://www.trademap.org/Product,in Nov, 2022

Egyptian exports recorded $ 30,632 million while imports amounted to $78,657.51 million by the end of 2019, and exports of chemicals, plastics, fertilizers and paints to the African continent rose. The Council for the Export of Agricultural Crops confirmed the increase in exports of the sector, specifically citrus, due to the increase in demand, and the increasing rates of intra-trade growth had a positive impact on the GDP and consequently on the economic growth.

The GDP of Egypt reached approximately 24954 million dollars, 25055 million dollars in 2018-2019, respectively, followed by Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania. Egyptian products are witnessing an increasing popularity in African markets and export the equivalent of 17.9% of the total intra-regional exports to the Nile Basin countries during the period (2000-2016). It includes fuel and mineral oils, followed by vegetables, fresh fruits, food products, aromatic oils, paper products, chemical industries and their products, and construction and building materials, while it imports the equivalent of 10% of intra-imports to the Nile Basin countries during the same period and this includes coffee, tea, tobacco, cocoa and spices. Kenya accounts for the largest share of tea imports and tobacco, while Sudan is the most important trading partner of Egypt and accounts for 29% of Egyptian exports, followed by Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Uganda.

Kenya occupies an advanced position in the volume of trade exchange for the Nile Basin countries and its exports are estimated as nearly $ 5836.1 million, while imports are estimated as nearly $ 17,220 million. Uganda is the most important trade partner for Kenya and accounts for 26% of its regional exports. The Kenyan economy depends mainly on agriculture and employs 90.2% of the total population. Cut flowers, green coffee and cocoa pods are exported in addition to green tea without any added value. Chemicals, consumer goods and paper products are imported.

Ethiopia exports the equivalent of 2.5% of intra-regional exports to the Nile Basin countries and includes a limited number of agricultural products such as coffee, tea, spices, seeds, oil grains, as well as raw leather and gold, and together they represent 78% of the total export earnings with no added value. Ethiopia imports the equivalent of 3.1% of the total Intra-imports of the Nile Basin countries, such as fuel, mineral oils, distillation products, and vegetable oils in addition to copper and its articles, plastics and paper products.

Tanzania is the second largest economy in the East African Community and its economy depends on agriculture, and employs 77.3% of the total working-age population and is considered one of the fastest growing economies. The value of exports is $ 4946.71 million and imports $ 11573.6 million by the end of 2019.

Democratic Republic of Congo, The population of 84.2 million people in May 2021 is estimated at 54.2% of the working-age population in the agricultural sector.

Egypt exports aromatic materials, juices, and plant extracts, and imports copper and zinc. DRC exports amounted to $ 8372.77 million and imports $ 7714.49 million.

Uganda, The percentage of workers in the agricultural sector is 76.1%, according to the 2019 report, and it is considered an active member in many economic groupings. In 2019, Uganda’s exports amounted to $ 3563.78 million and imports $ 7,696.02 million.

Rwanda, A landlocked state characterized by the fertility of its lands and is located in the Great Lakes region in the middle of the continent with a population of 12.9 million people, in May 2021, 70% of the working-age population works in the agricultural sector. It exports primary raw materials, whether agricultural or extractive, and exports green coffee of all kinds in large quantities considering Coffee is one of the cash crops that Rwanda is distinguished by producing different types of high quality and competitive advantage.

Burundi, The population of Burundi was 11.91 million in May 2021, and by the end of 2019, the GDP reached 2998 million dollars and the per capita share was 250 and 252 dollars in 2018 and 2019, respectively, while the percentage of workers in the agricultural sector was 78% of the working-age population.

Fourth: Challenges and future prospects

• Challenges facing the Nile Basin countries
• The Nile Basin countries face many challenges that hinder the train of economic development and prevent the achievement of their goals, and the most important of these challenges are the following:
• The problem of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that is currently being raised and Egypt’s clear desire to complete negotiations with an emphasis on Egypt’s fundamentals in preserving its water rights and striving to reach a fair and binding legal agreement for all parties that meets the aspirations of all countries in development.
• The climatic changes that the world is going through, leading to the problem of drought and desertification, and the direct negative impact on the agricultural area, and then food security for the people of the Nile Basin countries, as countries depend on the outcome of agricultural exports.

The permanent deficit in the trade balance due to the increase in imports in addition to the accumulated debt benefits that represent a burden on the developing economy.

• The weak financing in various economic sectors and weak production and technical capacity.
• The weakness of the potential for developing the infrastructure and equipping the ports and transportation of all kinds affects the trade exchange movement.
• There is lack of available human resources due to the meager capabilities for training and improving technical skills.
• There are challenges related to product quality and competitiveness of African exports to global markets.
• Exporting raw materials, whether agricultural or extractive, in their primary form without added value at low prices, and importing them semi-finished or fully manufactured at a high cost impedes economic development.

Exporting oil and gas in its initial form reduces the proceeds of exports, especially with the presence of new discoveries in this sector

Weak trade exchange and lack of interest in cash crops (coffee, tea, cocoa, tobacco, spices)

• The similarity of products and the specialization of most countries in a limited number of commodities make them vulnerable to sudden economic fluctuations
• Nile Basin countries and future prospects:
• The growth in the rates of intra-trade is considered to have a positive effect on the growth of the gross domestic product. It is expected that the gross domestic product will grow during the year 2021, due to the presence of new discoveries of oil and gas and as a result of the countries’ efforts for economic integration.
• Paying attention to exports and the services sector as the main engine of economic growth.
• The Nile Basin countries seek to complete infrastructure development and increase production capacity.
• Countries seek to increase the agricultural area and pay attention to the industrial sector to boost local industry and increase production.
• Completing structural reforms, investing in infrastructure, and increasing private sector investment.
• Nile Basin countries seek to pay attention to water resources, dams and irrigation projects.
• Increasing interest in the field of energy and environmental conservation

Fifth: Conclusion – results and recommendations

Conclusion:

The study dealt with evaluating the performance of economic integration between the Nile Basin countries through the elements of the commercial agreements of the Nile Basin countries, where the most important agreements that facilitate the movement of foreign trade and support the bonds of economic cooperation between countries in various sectors, including agricultural, industrial cooperation, energy and infrastructure.

The study also discussed the economic performance of the Nile Basin countries and dealt with the performance of intra-trade for some Nile Basin countries that occupy advanced positions and top the list in economic performance, the most important of which were Egypt and Kenya.

The economic initiatives and achievements were presented, as well as the most important projects that have already been implemented, as well as what is under implementation.

Finally, the study dealt with the challenges facing the Nile Basin countries, the most important of which was the issue of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam currently raised between Ethiopia and the downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, in addition to the problem of climate change that is sweeping the world through the problem of drought and desertification and its impact on the agricultural area and then food security. The study also dealt with future prospects and the inter-projects of the Nile Basin countries.

From the previous presentation, it is concluded that the Nile Basin countries need to make a lot of effort in many areas and important issues to support relations among them and develop their economies. There are expectations to continue strengthening these efforts and striving towards achieving economic integration, as well as the growth of the economies of a number of countries, led by Egypt, Kenya, Tanzania and Rwanda. In addition to paying attention to the export sector and the service sector as the main engine of economic growth, the Nile Basin countries seek to complete the development of infrastructure and increase production capacity, with interest in water resources, dams and irrigation projects. This is in addition to completing structural reforms, increasing private sector investment to support their economies.

The study reached the following results and recommendations

• First: the results of the study

Weak trade exchange between the Nile Basin countries due to the similarity of the products produced, most of them are limited to a limited number of commodities and primary agricultural and extractive raw products.

The existence of structural imbalances in the economy and dependence on primary raw commodities as a source of income with different economic and financial policies, trade and transport insurance systems for each country, in addition to weak banking activities

The existence of obstacles to trade exchange between the Nile Basin countries represented in the economic dependence of the industrial capitalist countries, which costs the countries a great burden in relying on the export of raw materials, whether agricultural or extractive in its initial form, at low prices, while these semi-manufactured or fully-manufactured materials are imported to double their value, resulting in the presence of a permanent deficit in the trade balance, which burdens the state , the increase in the value of imports compared to exports led to an increase in indebtedness.

• Second: Study recommendations

The study made several recommendations

1. Working on developing intra-trade among the Nile Basin countries and paying attention to encouraging industries that give an added value to exports
2. Diversification of exports and specialization in products that have a competitive advantage and not relying on a limited number of primary agricultural crops that expose countries to the risks of economic fluctuations
3. Developing complementary relations and activate joint action in order to support economic integration with the need to increase cooperation between the Nile Basin countries and open new markets, especially that each of them can have a competitive advantage in some cash crops

4.The necessity of activating trade exchange agreements between the Nile Basin countries and discussing ways to upgrade the manufactured product to access global markets, while setting an ambitious marketing policy to promote products and encourage trade exchange, as the Nile Basin countries are considered a large and promising consumer market and need to hold exhibitions to market products

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[1] https://www.trademap.org/Product_SelProduct_,in Dec,2021

[2] The value was calculated by the researcher using data of World Population, a :http://www.worldometers.info,in Nov, 2022